Bunuel
Aggressive fertility treatments are not responsible for the rise in the incidence of twin births. Rather, this increase can be attributed to the fact that women are waiting longer to become mothers. Statistically, women over 35 are more likely to conceive twins, and these women comprise a greater percentage of women giving birth than ever before.
The argument above is flawed in that it ignores the possibility that
A. many women over 35 who give birth to twins are not first-time mothers
B. women over 35 are not the only women who give birth to twins
C. the correlation between fertility treatments and the increased incidence of multiple births may be a coincidence
D. on average, women over 35 are no more likely to conceive identical twins than other women are
E. women over 35 are more likely to resort to the sorts of fertility treatments that tend to yield twin births
KAPLAN OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:
E
Reading the question stem first (always a fine idea) for question 19 warns you to be on the alert for something the author has overlooked. The author argues against the notion that fertility treatments are responsible for the increased incidence of twins by presenting an alternative explanation-that the increase has occurred because more women are having children later in life, and these older women are statistically more likely to bear twins. This sounds plausible, but remember
the key questions in GMAT causal arguments: Is the causality as simple as the author believes? Could another cause have been at work? If women over 35 are much more likely to use fertility treatments that often result in twin births, then it's possible that the twin births among older women are in fact due to fertility treatments. The problem (E) points out is not that the "alternative explanation" is illogical or impossible, but that it might be dependent on the very explanation it's supposed to replace.
(A) and (D) introduce irrelevant considerations. The author's argument is that fertility drugs aren't responsible for the increase in twins. It doesn't matter that, as (A) says, many of these older women aren't first time mothers. Nor does it matter that, as (D) says, these older women are no more likely to produce
identical twins. As for (B), the author's point was simply that women over 35 are more likely to have twins than are younger women; her argument doesn't require that only women over 35 bear twins. (C) is wrong: since the author argues that the drugs are not responsible for the increased incidence of twins, she must believe, rather than overlook, the idea that any correlation between drugs and the increase of twin births is coincidental.