Sorry for the bad news but applications appear to be about 30% up this year and edging up.
Not really a prediction, more of an observation based. I know GMAT Club is not the universe of all applicants since some take the GRE, so I wanted to share a bit of the application trend that I just spotted last night based on the MBA Spotlight Fair sign ups that GMAT Club organizes. This data point is unique because the
MBA Spotlight Fair attracts more than just GMAT test takers, and has a good representation from those who are still preparing or took other tests. There are usually Admissions teams from 25-30 Business schools participating including H/S/W, M7, Top 15, etc, so it captures quite a few applicants and the school representation is very consistent year over year.
Bottom line: it is probably one of the largest applicant samples between 8,000 and 10,000 applicants annually. The event is usually marketed in a similar same way, so in general, the numbers should be consistent enough year over year.
2023- June 2023 (last year) MBA Spotlight Fair had 5,500 registrations.
- November 2023 (last year) MBA Spotlight Fair had 3,300 registrations
(there is a customary drop off from June to November.)
2024- June 2024 was almost 7K registrations, a 27% increase YoY.
- November 2024 is at 4,500, a 35% increase YoY and we have another week to go.
(likely the increase will be closer to 40% or even 50%)
Unfortunately I do not have 2022 numbers (the system was very different and tracked things differently) but whichever way you slice, application volume is up again after a 20% increase. Based on the sample of over 10,000 registrations, at least 20% and more likely 30%. We can try to deny it, but the numbers are looking not great for admission chances.
And the second part - you would think that schools would be happy and content with the number of applications and perhaps scale back some of the application fee waivers, GMAT waivers, etc. Nope. 29 admissions teams have signed up, 4 more than last year, and 14 are providing application for waivers, also more than ever before. With simple math, these two days will cost them over $1 million in lost application fees alone. You would think admissions committees would scale down but it seems like they’re only ramping up the arms race and trying to drive up the applications.
So, make your conclusions... the only possibility for relief I can see is is if the quality and readiness of the new applicants is not very high, but that's impossible to tell.