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01 Dec 2014, 10:44
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Ok folks....here it is? I'm guessing it's a solid 4.5 thoughts?
thanks, Alison
__________________________________________________
The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
"Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine."
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.
__________________________________________________
The Happy Pancake House's switch from butter to margarine may not be as well received as management
is supposing at this time.
The crux of the management memo hinges on two factors. 1. Only 2% of customers have complained about the switch.
2. 98% of customers are happy with the switch.
Let us address the former first. While the presentation of a 2% complaint rate is stated as fact, does it tell a true story?
Was it 2% of customers complaining to management? Or perhaps it was 2% of customers wrote a letter? Further still,
could it be that only 10% of the customers were even aware of the switch in which case, 20% of those who WERE aware
of the switch complained? Further what if only 25% of customers use butter/margerine on their order, of those only 10%
were aware of the switch. In this case, that would mean that of the 2.5% of customers who use butter on their order
AND were aware of the switch 80% of this subgroup complained. The first thing we must do is to clarify the 2% mentioned.
Secondly, let us look at the conclusion that "98% of customers are happy about the change". This conclusion contains
failed logic. A) Just because someone does not complain, it does not mean that they are happy. While some customers may
be happy it is quite common for people to only complain if they find the topic significant. Perhaps the customers simply
decided to "be ok" with the option but given the choice would still have chosen butter. B) As referred to in the previous
paragraph perhaps up to 98% of people were not even aware of the change. Are servers instructed to make customers aware
that when a customer asks for "butter" they are really getting margarine? Also, if this IS the directive is it being executed
on the restaurant floor.
Lastly, even if it truly is only 2% of customers that complained and that 98% of customers fell under the umbrella including,
happy, ok/resigned or unaware, no where has there been a consideration of the customers that may have stopped coming into
the Happy Pancake House all together. One can imagine that it is reasonable that true pancake afficianado could believe that
" a pancake without real butter just isn't worth eating". One way to investigate this possibility would be to evaluate sales
in the Southwest region across this time in comparison to other regions.
Ultimately what we see here is grand conclusions extrapolated from minor and undefined findings. Management should
revisit and delve further into the topic, including addressing the above mentioned additional questions, to truly know how
the customers feel about the change and the potential impact on over-all business.
thanks, Alison
__________________________________________________
The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
"Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine."
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.
__________________________________________________
The Happy Pancake House's switch from butter to margarine may not be as well received as management
is supposing at this time.
The crux of the management memo hinges on two factors. 1. Only 2% of customers have complained about the switch.
2. 98% of customers are happy with the switch.
Let us address the former first. While the presentation of a 2% complaint rate is stated as fact, does it tell a true story?
Was it 2% of customers complaining to management? Or perhaps it was 2% of customers wrote a letter? Further still,
could it be that only 10% of the customers were even aware of the switch in which case, 20% of those who WERE aware
of the switch complained? Further what if only 25% of customers use butter/margerine on their order, of those only 10%
were aware of the switch. In this case, that would mean that of the 2.5% of customers who use butter on their order
AND were aware of the switch 80% of this subgroup complained. The first thing we must do is to clarify the 2% mentioned.
Secondly, let us look at the conclusion that "98% of customers are happy about the change". This conclusion contains
failed logic. A) Just because someone does not complain, it does not mean that they are happy. While some customers may
be happy it is quite common for people to only complain if they find the topic significant. Perhaps the customers simply
decided to "be ok" with the option but given the choice would still have chosen butter. B) As referred to in the previous
paragraph perhaps up to 98% of people were not even aware of the change. Are servers instructed to make customers aware
that when a customer asks for "butter" they are really getting margarine? Also, if this IS the directive is it being executed
on the restaurant floor.
Lastly, even if it truly is only 2% of customers that complained and that 98% of customers fell under the umbrella including,
happy, ok/resigned or unaware, no where has there been a consideration of the customers that may have stopped coming into
the Happy Pancake House all together. One can imagine that it is reasonable that true pancake afficianado could believe that
" a pancake without real butter just isn't worth eating". One way to investigate this possibility would be to evaluate sales
in the Southwest region across this time in comparison to other regions.
Ultimately what we see here is grand conclusions extrapolated from minor and undefined findings. Management should
revisit and delve further into the topic, including addressing the above mentioned additional questions, to truly know how
the customers feel about the change and the potential impact on over-all business.
08 Dec 2020, 02:55
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