IanStewart
You have the right answer to a slightly different question - if a person picks four shirts one at a time, what is the probability he or she picks the pink shirt
first, and then picks three non-blue shirts?
That is, in your numerator, you've counted the number of ways of picking a Pink shirt with your first selection, then three shirts of a non-Blue colour with the remaining three selections. But in this question we don't need to pick the Pink shirt first - we might instead pick it second, third or fourth. So you need to multiply your numerator by 4, and then you'll have the right answer.
We multiply by 4!/3! = 4 because there are 4 possible positions for the pink shirt to be selected.
Here's the key part: The sequence of pink, non-blue, non-blue, non-blue can be arranged in 4!/3! = 4 different ways since the pink shirt can be in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th position.
You don't multiply by 4! (which would be for arranging all 4 shirts in different ways) because the order within the non-blue shirts doesn’t matter. You are only concerned about where the pink shirt is placed.
So, multiplying by 4 accounts for the 4 positions the pink shirt can occupy.