The following appeard as part of an articel in a trade magazine:
During a recent trial period in which government inspections at selected meat-processing plants were more frequent, the amount of bacteria in samples of processed chicken decreased by 50 percent on average from the previous year's level. If the government were to institute more frequent inspections, the incidence of stomach and intestinal infections throughout the country could thus be cut in half. In the meantime, consumers of Excel Meats should be safe from infection because Excel's main processing plant has shown more improvement in eliminating bacterial contamination than any other plant cited in the government report.
My response:
The argument that appeared in a trade magazine claims that the government should increase the frequency of inspections at meat-processing plants because of the positive results in a recent trial period. Stated in this way the argument reveals examples of leap of faith, poor reasoning and ill-defined terminology.
First, the argument assumes that the higher frequency of the inspections is the reason for a decline in the amount of bacteria found in samples of processed chicken. This statement is a stretch and not substantiated in any way. The author compares the amount of bacteria with the amount in the previous year. It is possible that unusual incidents caused very high levels of bacteria in the last year and that the amount of bacteria reached its normal level again. Therefore, it is not possible to conclude that the higher frequency of inspections is the cause for the declined bacteria level. If the argument explicitly stated the bacteria levels not only of the previous year but of several previous years, then it could have been much clearer.
Second, the argument claims that the implementation of more frequent inspections will cut the incidents of stomach and intestinal infections throughout the whole country in half. This is again a very weak and unsupported claim as the author does not demonstrate a correlation between the frequency of inspections and the appearance of infections. The author mentions that the amount of bacteria in chicken decreased by 50% and therefore concludes that the infections can be cut in half. It is not at all clear how much the amount of bacteria in other types of meat changed and how much the bacteria in chicken contributes to the whole amount of infections. If, for example, the level of bacteria in other meat than chicken only decreased slightly during the trial period and bacteria in chicken only causes a small amount of infections, then the incidence of infections will decrease by a number smaller than 50% with more frequent inspections. Furthermore, the author claims that this cut will happen nationwide. However, he fails to mention whether or not the “selected” meat-processing plants are representative for the whole nation. If the author provided evidence that bacteria in chicken meat is the most serious cause of infections and that the selected meat plants are representative for the whole nation, then he could have been much more convincing.
Finally, the argument concludes that consumers of Excel Meats should be safe since the company shows the most successful improvement in eliminating bacteria. It is possible that Excel Meats shows the best improvement but it is also possible that they had the worst starting situation. In this case, they could still provide meat that, on average, contains more bacteria than that of competing companies. Without supporting evidence, showing that Excel Meats actually provides meat with less bacteria than that of their competitors, one is left with the impression that this is more a wishful thinking rather than substantive evidence. As a result, this conclusion has no legs to stand on.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the above mentioned reasons and therefore neither sound nor persuasive. It could be considerably strengthened if the author clearly mentioned all the relevant facts.
Thank you in advance