Kiara229 wrote:
PyjamaScientist wrote:
Surplus is defined as the difference between Exports and Imports.
Thus, \(Surplus = Exports - Imports\). Since the surplus has decreased in past few years, it is claimed that Exports must have lowered. What if the Exports remained the same or even increased, but the second part of the equation, that is imports' contribution, increased way more to decrease the difference between Exports and Imports?
Option (E), hits right on that fallacy. If the value of Country M's imports has tripled then you can not confidently say that the "Exports" must have decreased. Maybe the imports alone caused the surplus too fall and exports were as they were before.
Correct choice.
I was struggling between D and E. Can you explain the flaw in D? If Surplus = Export - Import and the value per imported item increased, it would mean the value of the imports by same amount would've increased without the exports (because they are not mentioned) to drop: Which would result in the decrease of the surplus.
Thanks!
Hi
Kiara229,
You make a valid point. But, the thing that makes (D) inferior to
(E) is the term, "
value per item" in (D).
Value per item does not tell you much about the
increase or decrease in the value of total imports, something that
(E) does clearly.
To expound further:
Say the
import three years before was valued at $100, and say, there were 100 items imported. So, the value per item would be $1 per item. After three years, suppose the number of items decreased to a mere 10 items, but their price has increased from $1 per item to $10 per item. This would again make the total import value $100 dollars only. So, you see, there's
no net change in the import value although the price per item has increased by 10 times. So, just by saying that the price per item has increased gradually, you can not really weaken the conclusion as much as
tripled imports in (E) does. (E) doesn't leave that room of speculation whether the total imports value increased with respect to the increase in price per item, thus, it is a superior choice than (D) is.
In CR, you would often get down to two choices that might both make some sense to the question asked, but, you have to choose the one that makes the
most sense. Or with respect to "weaken" type questions- Choose the option that hits the conclusion most negatively.
Hope it helps.