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Each year three space shuttles are launched, two in June

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Each year three space shuttles are launched, two in June  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Jan 2016, 11:46
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Each year three space shuttles are launched, two in June and one in October. If each shuttle is
known to occur without a delay in 90% of the cases and if the current month is January, what is the
probability that at least one of the launches in the next 16 months will be delayed?


Not aware of the answers

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Re: Each year three space shuttles are launched, two in June  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Jan 2016, 12:58
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If the current month is January, then in the next 16 months there will be 3 launches - 2 in June and 1 in October. 16 months brings us to April of the following year.

To find the probability of at least one launch being delayed during that time, we should look for the opposite case - the probability of no launches being delayed in the next 16 months - and subtract that from 1.

Probability that any given launch is not delayed = 0.9
Probability that 3 launches are not delayed = 0.9*0.9*0.9 = 0.729
Probability that at least one launch will be delayed = 1-0.729 = 0.271 = 27.1%

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Re: Each year three space shuttles are launched, two in June  [#permalink]

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New post 23 Jan 2016, 11:45
Hi Nak07,

What is the source of this question? I ask because it's not written in proper 'gmat' style, it's poorly-worded, doesn't include the 5 answer choices and a number of the 'details' in this question (about the months that the shuttles are launched and the 16 month timeframe) have absolutely NO impact on the calculation (the prompt could have simply stated "what is the probability that at least one of the launches this year will be delayed?"). If you're studying with materials that aren't 'in line' with the prompts that you'll see on Test Day, then you're likely not preparing in the most effective way possible to face the GMAT.

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Re: Each year three space shuttles are launched, two in June &nbs [#permalink] 23 Jan 2016, 11:45
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