can someone please grade my Essay?
The following appeared in a research paper written for an introductory economics course:
“For the past century, an increase in the number of residential building permits issued per month in a particular region has been a reliable indicator of coming improvements to that region’s economy. If the monthly number of residential building permits issued rises consistently for a few months, the local unemployment rate almost always falls and economic production increases. This well-established connection reveals an effective method by which a regional government can end a local economic downturn: relax regulations governing all construction so that many more building permits can be issued.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.
Essay
The author of the research paper written for an introductory economic course concluded that relaxing regulations governing all construction will lead to more building permits to be issued thus ending a local economic downturn based on the fact that for the past century, an increase in the number of residential building permits in a particular region has been a reliable indicator of coming improvements to that region’s economy. The conclusion is flawed based on many unwarranted assumptions. To start with the causal relation established by the author between the increase of the building permits with the improvement of the economy, secondly, the author has provided vague information regarding the improvement of the economy and the decrease of the unemployment rates and finally, considering time doesn’t change from the past century to the present time.
To start with, the author of the research paper has established a causal relation between the increase of the building permits with the improvement of the economy ignoring the fact that many other factors could lead to that result and might have happened simultaneously with the increase of the building permits for example the discovery of a petroleum well or the discovery of a mine in that region or simply a development plan has been planned for that particular region. Had the author mentioned the direct link between the permits and the economic improvement with a study done or stating all other factors that might lead to that improvement, the assumption would have been valid. In addition, the fact that relacing the governing regulations will lead to the issuance of more building permits is flawed as the market could be saturated at the moment and people don’t want to build more buildings,
Secondly, the author has used a vague language where he missed to include any number or statistic that shows what was the economic state of that particular area, the number of permits issued and the impact of these permits on the economy for example, the economy has been improved by 60% or the unemployment rate has dropped to a new low record of 10% from 60% based on a study, then the argument would have been valid verified.
Finally, the author has assumed that time doesn’t change and what was applicable for the past century is still valid today, not taking into consideration the technological improvement that have reduced the required manpower to do a certain job, and not taking into consideration that the population growth is decreasing, and less people are willing to buy houses or to find jobs. Had the author mentioned how the same conditions still applies on today’s era, the effect of these permits is affection the unemployment rates if any is still available and if the supply and demand of the buildings is unchangeable with time, the argument would have been valid.
To conclude, the assumption of the author that a relaxation in the regulations governing all construction will lead to more building permits to be issued thus leading to an improvement in the local economic downturn is flawed and needs to be backed by more evidence and precise language for the argument to be valid.