The Argument:Premise: Three equal groups engaged in different exercises (rowing, jogging, and dancing) for 45 minutes daily for a month.
Observation: Three months later, about 50% of the rowing and jogging groups continued their activity at least twice a week, but about 80% of the dance group did.
Conclusion: The argument concludes that dance is the activity people are most likely to continue pursuing once they've started.
The Task:We need to identify an assumption that the argument relies on. An assumption is an unstated premise that is necessary for the argument’s conclusion to be valid.
Analyzing the Answer Choices:(A) Of the survey participants who changed to a different type of exercise after the survey ended, fewer changed from dance to another activity than changed from either jogging or rowing to dance.
This option discusses participants switching activities after the survey. The argument doesn't focus on switching activities but on the continuation of the same activity. Therefore, this is irrelevant to the argument's core conclusion.
(B) Joggers and rowers are no more likely than dancers to become injured while pursuing their chosen activity.
This option implies that injuries might influence the continuation rates. However, the argument is about likelihood to continue rather than specific reasons like injuries. While injuries might influence continuation, this isn't the most direct assumption the argument relies on.
(C) Dance is an activity for which participants are less dependent on favorable weather than jogging and rowing are.
This could be relevant if weather conditions influenced continuation rates. However, the argument doesn't provide any context related to weather conditions. While it might matter, this isn't central to the argument’s logic.
(D) The ratio of study participants who chose their activity to those who were randomly assigned their activity was no lower for jogging and rowing than it was for dancing.
Correct. This assumption is critical. If participants in the dance group were more likely to choose dancing, while participants in the other groups were randomly assigned their activities, the results would be skewed. People are generally more likely to continue an activity they actively choose rather than one assigned to them. The argument assumes that the continuation rates aren't influenced by whether participants chose their activity or were assigned to it. This assumption ensures that the comparison between the groups is fair and valid.
(E) The number of participants in the dance group was no lower than the number of participants in the jogging and rowing groups.
This option focuses on the number of participants in each group. However, the groups are stated as equal in size, so this assumption is unnecessary. The conclusion is based on proportions of continuation, not the total number of participants.
Why Option D is Correct:Fair Comparison: The conclusion hinges on a fair comparison between the three exercise groups. If the dance group had a higher proportion of participants who chose to be in that group, the high continuation rate might be due to personal preference rather than the inherent appeal of dance. For the conclusion that dance is the activity people are most likely to continue to be valid, the assumption must be that the distribution of choice vs. random assignment is consistent across all groups. This ensures that the difference in continuation rates reflects the nature of the activities themselves, not external factors like personal preference