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GMAT Monte Carlo Simulation

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Intern
Intern
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Joined: 28 Jan 2018
Posts: 1
Location: United States (MA)
Schools: Darden '21 (D)
GMAT 1: 730 Q45 V45
GPA: 3.46
GMAT Monte Carlo Simulation  [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jan 2019, 20:07
A few weeks ago I built a Monte Carlo sim in excel to predict Fantasy Football Playoff seeding (not my creation they're all over the internet). It got me thinking about application to GMAT attempts. I don't have a lot of experience in the area so I thought I'd open it up to some experts.
The general idea is: Hypothetically, If I maintain ability level with moderate studying and take my 7 remaining lifetime exams over 3 months canceling any non improvement, what could the distribution look like.
I know the GMAT says you will score within 30 points of your ability with 90% confidence so am I just reproving this with a small sample size or could I learn something predictive about my chances of getting a dream score with enough attempts? Any suggested modifications? I may be a unique case having this much data at a relatively stagnant ability level.

The sim predicts raw scores and calculates an overall score. I'd be happy to post the file if people are interested.
Right now my inputs are the 6 Official GMAT practices
-Quant: Mean 47.167 SD 1.572
-Verbal:Mean 44.333 SD .745
Since I already did a full study last year and goal is to maintain verbal, improve Quant 3-4 points, my scores are reasonably consistent.
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Re: GMAT Monte Carlo Simulation  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Jan 2019, 17:08
Interesting idea. Perhaps you could combine it with scores on SAT, GRE, LSAT etc. Progress in one likely engenders progress in another
GMAT Club Bot
Re: GMAT Monte Carlo Simulation &nbs [#permalink] 06 Jan 2019, 17:08
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GMAT Monte Carlo Simulation

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