Re: Group 20 Question 96: Mayor of the City of Zalperain Several recent...
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19 May 2021, 10:38
Official Explanation:
Mayor of the City of Zalperain: Several recent newspaper articles have pointed out that the average purchase price of a home in our city has increased 6% during each of the last two years. These articles assume that the higher cost of a home has caused the slowdown of home purchases during this period. However, the current average market value for a home in our city is about $330,000, which is about the same that of homes in similar towns and cities in our region that have not seen any slowdown in home purchases, so the actual cause must be something else.
Which of the following, if true, would most seriously call into question the mayor’s conclusion?
A. Analysts have determined that many of the houses on the market in Zalperain in the last two years were badly in need of structural repair.
B. Because of overall market trends, most people in Zalperain made little if any profit when they sold their home during the last two years.
C. The most common reason homeowners gave for moving out of Zalperain during the last two years was retirement.
D. About half the homes in Zalperain are valued at less than $200,000, and very few of these homes have been put on the market for sale during the last two years.
E. A substantial number of people who sold their homes in Zalperain during the last two years moved into a rental property.
Question Type: Weaken
Boil It Down: The article states that home sales have slowed because home prices have gone up. The mayor disagrees - they argue home prices in Zalperain are the similar to other towns nearby, so there must be some other reason for the decline in home sales.
Goal: Find the option that weakens the mayor’s argument that there must be some other explanation for why home sales have slowed.
Analysis:
General comments about weakeners that involve numbers:
When a weakener uses numbers in its move from premise(s) to conclusion, our suspicions should be raised. We should ask whether the numbers are hiding a potential weakness in the argument.
Argument structure:
(P) = Premise/Evidence/Support (C) = Conclusion
Article’s argument:
P: Average purchase prices of homes have increased
C: Higher cost of homes have caused a reduction in home purchases
Mayor’s argument:
P: The average home prices in our city is similar to other cities which have not seen a downturn
C: Downturn in home purchases not due to increase in prices
The articles are making a causal argument. They are arguing that the increases in purchase prices for homes are the cause of the downturn in the number of home sales. In order to defeat this causal argument, the mayor provides a counterexample. In effect, the mayor is saying that the article’s causal argument is flawed by pointing out towns with similarly priced homes which have not seen a downturn. The mayor is saying that Zalperain is just like these towns, with similarly priced homes. And these towns have not experienced a downturn. So, it must not be the increased prices that are the cause of the downturn.
We are looking for ways to weaken the mayor’s attempt at weakening the article’s causal argument. Both arguments rely on average purchase prices of homes. Averages can be misleading. Even if the average purchase price of the homes in Zalperain are similar to other cities, this does not mean that the cities are similar. There may be numerous homes that are significantly lower in price than the other towns, even though the averages are the same. This fact helps to show that the mayor’s appeal to the similarity in average home price is irrelevant to her/his conclusion. S/he is not comparing like to like. This has the effect of undercutting the mayor’s argument because it relies on an irrelevant premise, namely that the average home prices in the city are the same as similar cities in the area.
Lastly, both sets of arguments deal with the relationship between the average purchase price of homes and number of homes sold. Answer choices that deal with neither of these factors will be irrelevant. Understanding this fact about the crux of the argument will help identify the answer choices that are irrelevant.
A. Analysts have determined that many of the houses on the market in Zalperain in the last two years were badly in need of structural repair.
Incorrect. This answer choice strengthens the mayor’s argument. If many of the houses in Zalperain were in need of repair, then this fact might be the explanation for the downturn in home purchases. So, this answer choice offers an alternative cause to the one suggested in the articles. As such, answer choice A would support, not weaken, the mayor’s argument.
B. Because of overall market trends, most people in Zalperain made little if any profit when they sold their home during the last two years.
Incorrect. The argument is dealing with the relationship between the average purchase price of homes and number of homes sold. Profits are not part of this argument. As such, this answer choice is irrelevant.
C. The most common reason homeowners gave for moving out of Zalperain during the last two years was retirement.
Incorrect. The argument is dealing with the relationship between the average purchase price of homes and number of homes sold. Reasons for moving out of Zalperain have no bearing on the average price of a home or the number of homes sold. As such, this answer choice is irrelevant.
D. About half the homes in Zalperain are valued at less than $200,000, and very few of these homes have been put on the market for sale during the last two years.
Correct. Although the average price of homes in Zalperain are similar to other cities that have not experienced a downturn in sales, answer choice C shows that Zalperain is not necessarily like these other cities whose average home price is $330,000. The fact that Zalperain is not necessarily like these other cities shows that the mayor’s appeal to these other cities may be irrelevant to her/his conclusion. As such, the mayor’s argument is weakened. Also, apparently even significantly lower priced homes have not been put on the market. So, the downturn in sales is not necessarily due to increases in home prices.
E. A substantial number of people who sold their homes in Zalperain during the last two years moved into a rental property.
Incorrect. The argument is dealing with the relationship between the average purchase price of homes and number of homes sold. The fact that many Zalperians sold their homes and moved to rental properties has no bearing on the average price of homes or the number of homes sold. As such, this answer choice is irrelevant.
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