Official Solution: Bunuel
In a genetic database of 200 samples, each sample may or may not show Marker X, and each sample may or may not show Marker Y. Every sample that does not show Marker X also does not show Marker Y. Exactly 150 samples show at least one marker, and exactly 120 samples do not show Marker Y.
One sample is selected at random. Select for
P(X only) the probability that the sample shows Marker X but not Marker Y, and select for
P(Both) the probability that the sample shows both markers. Make only two selections, one in each column.
The possible states for a sample are:
• (X yes, Y yes)
• (X yes, Y no)
• (X no, Y no)
The state (X no, Y yes) is impossible, because the rule says if X is absent then Y must also be absent.
Total = 200.
Since 120 samples do not show Y (the Y no groups), the remaining 80 show Y. These must be (X yes, Y yes). So, (X yes, Y yes) = 80.
Also, 150 samples show at least one marker, which must be X, because Y cannot appear without X. Therefore, X = 150, which means (X yes, Y yes) + (X yes, Y no) = 150. This makes (X no, Y no) = 200 − 150 = 50.
Now we can break down the counts:
• (X yes, Y yes) = 80
• (X yes, Y no) = 200 − 80 − 50 = 70
• (X no, Y no) = 50
P(X only) = 70/200 = 0.35
P(Both) = 80/200 = 0.40
Answer: P(X only) = 0.35, P(Both) = 0.40
Correct answer: P(X only)
"0.35"P(Both)
"0.4"