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In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered

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In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Feb 2017, 01:26
3
5
00:00
A
B
C
D
E

Difficulty:

  95% (hard)

Question Stats:

51% (02:17) correct 49% (02:09) wrong based on 235 sessions

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Source: McGraw Hill GMAT

In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered voters in the area to ask them which candidate they planned to vote for. Voters from a representative sample of genders, ages, races, and political affiliations were polled, and 53% of them said they would vote for incumbent Jana Reyes for mayor over any other candidate. Based on the poll results, the news company concluded that Reyes would win the mayoral race.

Each of the following, if true, could weaken the conclusion presented above except:

A. The news company conducted the poll by phone, mainly in the middle of the day over two weekdays.
B. This race has been a particularly tumultuous one in which public opinion has often turned very quickly.
C. In this town, any mayoral race in which the top candidate receives less than 55% of the vote will result in a runoff election.
D. In the past, polls given by the news organization that showed more than a 5% lead by a particular candidate have predicted the outcome of the race with a high degree of accuracy.
E. Due to an administrative error, Jana Reyes will be a write-in candidate on the ballot in the actual election.

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Re: In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Feb 2017, 01:44
I marked the answer as "B" but still not able to understand why OA is D.. isn't D strengthening the conclusion ?
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Re: In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered  [#permalink]

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New post 20 Feb 2017, 10:44
skgmatclub2016 wrote:
I marked the answer as "B" but still not able to understand why OA is D.. isn't D strengthening the conclusion ?

This is an except question, therefore anything that will make the the conclusion more likely is the answer. Anything above 5% difference means that mayor will win. 53% -47%(2nd candidate) =6% difference, hence a likely victory based off the polls.
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Re: In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered  [#permalink]

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New post 21 Feb 2017, 12:04
JeevesAsk wrote:
skgmatclub2016 wrote:
I marked the answer as "B" but still not able to understand why OA is D.. isn't D strengthening the conclusion ?

This is an except question, therefore anything that will make the the conclusion more likely is the answer. Anything above 5% difference means that mayor will win. 53% -47%(2nd candidate) =6% difference, hence a likely victory based off the polls.


Well explained. Just to add: the difference is AT LEAST 6% assuming only 2 candidates get votes. If there are more, then the difference would be higher.
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Re: In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Feb 2017, 01:03
can anybody explain why its not A , i got stuck btw A&D and finally marked A
expert please explain!
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Re: In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered  [#permalink]

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New post 24 Feb 2017, 22:21
sayantanc2k wrote:
JeevesAsk wrote:
skgmatclub2016 wrote:
I marked the answer as "B" but still not able to understand why OA is D.. isn't D strengthening the conclusion ?

This is an except question, therefore anything that will make the the conclusion more likely is the answer. Anything above 5% difference means that mayor will win. 53% -47%(2nd candidate) =6% difference, hence a likely victory based off the polls.


Well explained. Just to add: the difference is AT LEAST 6% assuming only 2 candidates get votes. If there are more, then the difference would be higher.


Point taken, however why is A wrong? Are we to assume that the sample size of the voters polled is in question?
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In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered  [#permalink]

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New post 25 Feb 2017, 13:09
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rohan2310 wrote:
sayantanc2k wrote:
JeevesAsk wrote:
This is an except question, therefore anything that will make the the conclusion more likely is the answer. Anything above 5% difference means that mayor will win. 53% -47%(2nd candidate) =6% difference, hence a likely victory based off the polls.


Well explained. Just to add: the difference is AT LEAST 6% assuming only 2 candidates get votes. If there are more, then the difference would be higher.


Point taken, however why is A wrong? Are we to assume that the sample size of the voters polled is in question?



Not the sample size, but whether the sample is representative to take a conclusion is the point. It is possible that only a particular type of voters (e.g., housewives) are available for talking during the period when the phone calls are made.
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Re: In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Sep 2018, 03:27
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Re: In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered   [#permalink] 14 Sep 2018, 03:27
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