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Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour

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Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 00:54
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Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

Dr. Summer’s argument is structured to lead to which of the following conclusion?


A. The fact that 90 percent of the people know someone who suffers from heart disease is not an indication that heart disease is abnormally high.

B. The current level of heart disease is not moderate.

C. If at least 5 percent of the population suffered from heart disease, the result of questioning a representative group of people cannot be the percentage the interviewer cites.

D. It is unlikely that the people whose statements the interviewer cites are giving accurate reports.

E. If a person with heart disease is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those with heart disease is even higher.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 01:44
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If 1 person knows approximately 50 people, there is a fair chance that out of 50 people, at least 1 person will be suffering from heart disease. (Since 5 out of every 100 has heart disease)
So, Doctor is implying knowing someone with heart disease is not a indication of high heart disease rate.

IMO Option A
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 02:11
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So even though interviewer presented few facts, doctor concluded the opposite way....so the data presented by interviewer is not effecting the doctors conclusion

A. The fact that 90 percent of the people know someone who suffers from heart disease is not an indication that heart disease is abnormally high.....is accurately inline with above ideology....


OA:A

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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 05:30
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Quote:
Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

Dr. Summer’s argument is structured to lead to which of the following conclusion?

A. The fact that 90 percent of the people know someone who suffers from heart disease is not an indication that heart disease is abnormally high.
B. The current level of heart disease is not moderate.
C. If at least 5 percent of the population suffered from heart disease, the result of questioning a representative group of people cannot be the percentage the interviewer cites.
D. It is unlikely that the people whose statements the interviewer cites are giving accurate reports.
E. If a person with heart disease is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those with heart disease is even higher.


ARGUMENT
[i] An "ALARMING" stat in journal shows that 90% in the country know someone with heart disease;
[d] The "EXPECTED" level of people who know someone with heart disease is 5% or 1 out of 20 people;
[d] At any given time, a person who knows a small group will likely know someone who suffers from HD;
[asum] The "ALARMING" stat is actually not that alarming.

Ans (A)
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 11:29
Ans should be A as it is a direct inference from the doctor's reply .
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 13:34
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The right answer is option A.

Premise: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.
Counter Premise: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

The response provided by Dr. Summer to the statistics quoted by the interviewer suggests that it is not unusual for 90% of the people in the country to know someone who has heart disease considering a person only needs to know at least 20 people in order for them have a likelihood of meeting at least one person with a heart disease. It is not far-fetched to assume that 90% of the population of the nation know at least 20 people in which case the statistics quoted by the interviewer does not provide a reason for alarm.

Option A states that the fact that 90 percent of the people know someone who suffers from heart disease is not an indication that heart disease is abnormally high. This could serve as a paraphrase of Dr. Summer's position on the issue. The right answer is therefore option A.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 14:15
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Interviewer says 90% of people know atleast someone with a heart disease.

Doctor Summer suggests that the heart disease incidence rate is 1 in 20 people(5%). So if an average person knows 50, this could be true.

The best answer is A as Doctor Summer doesnt seem to be surprised.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 13 Nov 2019, 22:26
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Interviewer- gives a statistic that 90 percent of the people know at least one person who is suffering from heart disease.

Dr summer- if people know 50 people at least 1 of them suffers from heart disease.

IMO A- the doctor is stating the logical information that if 90 percent people know someone doesn't mean the disease rate is high.

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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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New post 14 Nov 2019, 00:30
Bunuel wrote:

Competition Mode Question



Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

Dr. Summer’s argument is structured to lead to which of the following conclusion?


A. The fact that 90 percent of the people know someone who suffers from heart disease is not an indication that heart disease is abnormally high.

B. The current level of heart disease is not moderate.

C. If at least 5 percent of the population suffered from heart disease, the result of questioning a representative group of people cannot be the percentage the interviewer cites.

D. It is unlikely that the people whose statements the interviewer cites are giving accurate reports.

E. If a person with heart disease is given as a certain percent, the actual percentage of those with heart disease is even higher.


OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:



Correct Answer: A

The best answer is A. Dr. Summer's argument is essentially that, even if the facts are as the interviewer presents them, they are not in and of themselves a cause for alarm. Even circumstances reassuringly normal and unremarkable imply the sort of fact the interviewer cites. Thus, that fact does not indicate that the rate of heart disease has increased above normal.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour   [#permalink] 14 Nov 2019, 00:30
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