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# Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour

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Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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13 Nov 2019, 23:42
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65% (hard)

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48% (01:24) correct 52% (01:59) wrong based on 122 sessions

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Competition Mode Question

Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

Dr, Summer's argument relies on the assumption that

A. Normal levels of heart disease are rarely exceeded
B. Heart disease is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population.
C. The number of people who each know someone who suffers from heart disease is always higher than 90 percent of the population
D. The interviewer is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
E. Knowledge that a personal acquaintance has heart disease generates more fear of getting heart disease than does knowledge of heart disease statistics.

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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 00:27
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Doctor's assumption that if 1 person knows 50 people, and out of those 50 at least 1 person is suffering from heart disease is "people with heart disease are uniformly concentrated and not isolated geographically".

IMO Option B
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 03:42
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I think (B)

Dr Summer's conclusion is true on the condition that the calculation is based on an even spread of people with heart disease on all over the country. If heart disease is more concentrated somewhere than in some other places, the average 5% will not be representative of the whole country.

Any choice that excludes the possibility of such an uneven spread will be the assumption that Dr Summer's statement is based on.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 04:01
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Imo. B.

Let's negate the option B and keep in the context of Dr. summer, it will destroy the conclusion.

Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. Heart disease is normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

Dr, Summer's assumed that Heart disease is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population.

This question is similar to the unemployment type of question. Replace Heart disease with unemployment.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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Updated on: 14 Nov 2019, 04:18
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Quote:
Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

Dr, Summer's argument relies on the assumption that

A. Normal levels of heart disease are rarely exceeded
B. Heart disease is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population.
C. The number of people who each know someone who suffers from heart disease is always higher than 90 percent of the population
D. The interviewer is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
E. Knowledge that a personal acquaintance has heart disease generates more fear of getting heart disease than does knowledge of heart disease statistics.

ARGUMENT
I: an ALARMING stat shows that 90% of people now know someone who has HD;
S: an EXPECTED level is 5% or 1:20 people; so if one knows 50 people, he will likely know ≥ 1 with HD;

Ans (B): if HD is normally concentrated in a remote region, then population wouldn't be as evenly distributed as assumed, and in fact the report could be alarming.

Originally posted by exc4libur on 14 Nov 2019, 04:15.
Last edited by exc4libur on 14 Nov 2019, 04:18, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 04:16
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B. Heart disease is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population........since doctor assumes that if a geography have a higher concentration of heart patients....then we cannot conclude stating a generic percentage over the entire population....

So it doesn't depends solely on the geography.

OA:B

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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 06:04
Conclusion: Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

negating option C : The number of people who each know someone who suffers from heart disease is not always higher than 90 percent of the population

IMO C

Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

Dr, Summer's argument relies on the assumption that

A. Normal levels of heart disease are rarely exceeded
B. Heart disease is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population.
C. The number of people who each know someone who suffers from heart disease is always higher than 90 percent of the population
D. The interviewer is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
E. Knowledge that a personal acquaintance has heart disease generates more fear of getting heart disease than does knowledge of heart disease statistics.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 08:53
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Interviewer says 90% of people know atleast one suffering from heart disease

Doctor summer says since incidence rate is 5%, i.e 1 in 20 people . If someone knows 50 people, they are bound to come across atleast 2 people with heart disease .

Doctor assumes that disease is equally spread and therefore doesnt sound alarmed.

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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 11:23
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The right answer is option B.

Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

From the above argument, Dr. Summer's argument relies on the assumption that heart disease is evenly present throughout the country. If that is the case, then the possibility of a person who knows approximately 50 people getting to know at least one person out of the 50 to suffer from heart disease is very high. However, should heart disease not be evenly distributed throughout the country, then the argument by Dr. Summer will fall apart.

Option B states heart disease is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population. This is the right answer, as it is in line with the above.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 18:36
The interviewer speaks about the statistics that more than 90% people know someone who has heart disease and this is an alarming statistics.

Doctor Summer- further simplifies that if 1/20 people suffer from heart disease and if a person know around 50 people then he knows 1/50 who has heart disease.

Dr summers is explaining that someone will always know someone with heart disease and the percentage can be more than 90%.

IMO C

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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour  [#permalink]

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14 Nov 2019, 23:28
Bunuel wrote:

Competition Mode Question

Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Journal is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who has heart disease.

Dr. Summer: But an expected level of heart disease is 5 percent, or in other words, 1 out of every 20 people. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 people, 1 or more will very likely suffer from heart disease.

Dr, Summer's argument relies on the assumption that

A. Normal levels of heart disease are rarely exceeded
B. Heart disease is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population.
C. The number of people who each know someone who suffers from heart disease is always higher than 90 percent of the population
D. The interviewer is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
E. Knowledge that a personal acquaintance has heart disease generates more fear of getting heart disease than does knowledge of heart disease statistics.

Official Explanation

The best answer is B. Dr. Summer's argument assumes that people are generally similar in how likely they are to have among their acquaintances people who have heart disease. Since heavy concentrations of people with heart disease in geographically isolated segments of the population would produce great differences in that respect, Dr. Summer's argument assumes few, if any, such concentrations.
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Re: Interviewer: An alarming statistic reported in the Hobern Medical Jour   [#permalink] 14 Nov 2019, 23:28
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