Journalist: Although a recent poll found that more than half of all el

Question

Journalist: Although a recent poll found that more than half of all eligible voters support the idea of a political party whose primary concern is education, only 26 percent would like to join it, and only 16 percent would be prepared to donate money to it. Furthermore, there is overwhelming historical evidence that only a party that has at least 30 percent of eligible voters prepared to support it by either joining it or donating money to it is viable in the long run. Therefore, it is unlikely that an education party is viable in the long run.

The reasoning in the journalist’s argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that the argument fails to consider that

(A) some of those who said they were willing to donate money to an education party might not actually do so if such a party were formed

(B) an education party could possibly be viable with a smaller base than is customarily needed

(C) the 16 percent of eligible voters prepared to donate money to an education party might donate almost as much money as a party would ordinarily expect to get if 30 percent of eligible voters contributed

(D) a party needs the appropriate support of at least 30 percent of eligible voters in order to be viable and more than half of all eligible voters support the idea of an education party

(E) some of the eligible voters who would donate money to an education party might not be prepared to join such a party

Bunuel · Accepted Answer

EXPLANATION FROM Fox LSAT

Silly little trick here. The argument follows this basic pattern: 1) Fact: 30 percent of Bay Area residents are Giants baseball fans. 2) Fact: 20 percent of Bay Area residents are A’s baseball fans. 3) Fact: Unless 40 percent or more of an area’s population are fans of a particular sport, that sport will be unsuccessful in the area. 4) Bogus conclusion: Therefore baseball is unsuccessful in the Bay Area.

The obvious problem with this logic is that it ignores the possibility that the Giants fans and A’s fans might be different people. But it’s possible that there are zero people who like both the Giants and the A’s. If that’s true, then there are actually 50 percent total baseball fans in the Bay Area, which makes the conclusion totally wrong.

Same thing is happening with the journalist’s argument. 26 percent would join, and 16 percent would donate. The journalist assumes that the people who would donate would also join! But if these are actually two entirely separate groups, then there are 42 percent who would join  or  donate, which means the party could be viable.

A) No, it’s not about whether people would  actually  donate. The requirement was that supporters have to be “prepared to join or donate.” Also, this doesn’t match our prediction. I’m looking for something about  overlap .

B) No way in hell. This answer is a big time cheat. It basically says, “Oh yeah? Well, the rules might not apply in this case.” Saying that wouldn’t ruin the journalist’s logical position. The journalist would just come back with, “Yeah, well, I didn’t claim that the rules  always  apply, I just said that history makes it  unlikely  the party is going to succeed.”

C) This is a trap. You must stay connected to the facts that are presented! Like B, this one changes the rules. This one says, “I know that historically a certain percentage of  people  are necessary, but in this special case maybe my donors are going to donate more per person, which means my party will be an exception to the rule.” The journalist could reply to this with, “Well sure, maybe you’re special. But my logical position, based on facts and history, is still valid.” Be wary of answer choices that seem to ignore or avoid the premises of the argument.

D) Who gives a **** how many people "support the idea" of an education party? Even if it's 100 percent, we still might not have the 30 percent who will actually join or donate.

E) Yep. This one says, “Hey wait a minute! The 26 percent and the 16 percent might be  different  groups!” That’s exactly what we went looking for.

Our answer is E.

winterschool · Answer

Journalist: Although a recent poll found that more than half of all eligible voters support the idea of a political party whose primary concern is education, only 26 percent would like to join it, and only 16 percent would be prepared to donate money to it. Furthermore, there is overwhelming historical evidence that only a party that has at least 30 percent of eligible voters prepared to support it by either joining it or donating money to it is viable in the long run. Therefore, it is unlikely that an education party is viable in the long run.

The reasoning in the journalist’s argument is most vulnerable to criticism on the grounds that the argument fails to consider that

(A) some of those who said they were willing to donate money to an education party might not actually do so if such a party were formed  Incorrect

less people will donate money, support argument conclusion

(B) an education party could possibly be viable with a smaller base than is customarily needed  Incorrect

additional info, neither weakens nor support argument

(C) the 16 percent of eligible voters prepared to donate money to an education party might donate almost as much money as a party would ordinarily expect to get if 30 percent of eligible voters contributed  Incorrect

this choice talks about amount of donated money but not related with conclusion

(D)  a party needs the appropriate support of at least 30 percent of eligible voters in order to be viable and more than half of all eligible voters support the idea of an education party   Correct

correct choice, if only at least 4% of voters who would donate money were not like to join than 30% eligible voter support this party, weakens argument

(E) some of the eligible voters who would donate money to an education party might not be prepared to join such a party  Incorrect

support conclusion, decrease percentage of eligible voters to support party's idea

100mitra · Answer

Correct Option E

Premise : To be viable in long run a party must 30 percent support but joining or donating money to it.
26 of voters who support the education party are prepared to join it, and 16 percent are prepared to donate money to it.
 Conclusion : Therefore the party is not likely the party will be eligible in the long run.

Gap : The 16 percent of people that are willing to donate money to the party is a subset of 26 percent of those that are prepared to join it.

Option (E) : it suggests that some of the 16% who would donate are not included in the 26% who would join, meaning the two groups are somewhat separate (and it is more likely that a total percentage of 30% could be achieved).

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sivatx2 · Answer

In the argument, the journalist is mixing those would like to join the party (26%) and those who would like to done(16%) together. i.e., journalist assumes that those 16% who donates will also belong to the people who would join the party(26%). It may not be the case, as this information is not provided. What if little over 4% (who were part of the 16% who donates) would not like to join the party. Then, the total percentage of people who join/donate would be 26%+ (4+)% which will be greater than the required 30%. 
The above will weaken the journalist argument.

(A) some of those who said they were willing to donate money to an education party might not actually do so if such a party were formed 
 Decision of not donating if the party was not formed is irrelevant to the argument. Eliminate

(B) an education party could possibly be viable with a smaller base than is customarily needed 
 Viability is irrelevant to the argument. Eliminate

(C) the 16 percent of eligible voters prepared to donate money to an education party might donate almost as much money as a party would ordinarily expect to get if 30 percent of eligible voters contributed 
 The amount of money from donation is irrelevant to the argument. It is about whether total percent who donate and/or join the party is > 30%. Eliminate

(D) a party needs the appropriate support of at least 30 percent of eligible voters in order to be viable and more than half of all eligible voters support the idea of an education party 
 Support from eligible voters is irrelevant to the argument. Eliminate

(E) some of the eligible voters who would donate money to an education party might not be prepared to join such a party 
 As per analysis the choice E is the correct answer.

RiyaJ0032 · Answer

Just because 26% and 16% are different groups, I do not understand how really it affects our conclusion

we need to have a minimum of 30 people prepared to join or donate (if total eligible voters are 100)

We are given 26% would want to join

26% of what? Obviously the ones who have shown interest, the ones who do not support will never want to join
Assume out of 100, 60 show interest
of these 60, 26% join , roughly 16

Again, 16% are willing to donate
Let's keep both groups different
They do not have anything common, fine

But 16% of what? Obviously the ones who showed interest, 60 people
now since 26% and 16% are different groups, we remove the 16 from 60, this gives us 44
Now 16% of 44 are willing to donate, a value <30

So none of the groups give us a number = 30 for the conclusion to work

Not sure how your explanation affects the conclusion at all

Please if someone would like to pitch in with their explanation and shed some clarity

Thanks

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