Bunuel wrote:
Last month, a group of salespeople from a software firm attended a seminar on persuasive speaking. In the weeks following the seminar, the salespeople who attended the seminar have made more sales, on average, than those who did not attend the seminar. To increase sales, the sales manager plans to send the remaining salespeople to the same seminar next month.
Which of the following, if true, would most support the prediction that the sales manager’s plan will achieve its goal?
(A) Last month’s seminar focused solely on tactics relevant to the work at the particular company.
(B) Total company sales last month were higher than sales from the month prior to the seminar.
(C) To prepare for the seminar, the attending salespeople read a book on improving communication skills.
(D) Over the last month, the company’s sales were greater than the sales of its largest competitor.
(E) Invitations to last month’s seminar were not accepted solely by salespeople with above-average sales.
KAPLAN OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:
STEP 1: IDENTIFY THE QUESTION TYPEThis asks for something that supports a prediction, so it’s a Strengthen question.
STEP 2: UNTANGLE THE STIMULUSThe sales manager’s goal is to increase sales by having the salespeople who didn’t attend the seminar on persuasive speaking attend the next seminar. The implied opinion is that the seminar will make employees better salespeople; in other words, it will cause sales to increase. The evidence provided for this argument is that the salespeople who did attend the seminar had better sales than did non-attendees. However, this is only a correlation. There could be some other reason for the good performance (e.g., other seminars, better leads, luck). It’s also possible the author’s logic is backward: perhaps the attendees were already above average. Maybe that’s why they were chosen to attend the seminar in the first place, or perhaps more highly motivated people both choose to attend seminars and get more sales. The sales manager assumes these factors did not play an important role in the increased sales and that the seminar was responsible.
STEP 3: PREDICT THE ANSWERSince the goal is to strengthen the sales manager’s position, the correct answer will need to show that at least part of the manager’s assumption was correct; it will eliminate one or more of the alternative causes from consideration.
STEP 4: EVALUATE THE CHOICES(E) is correct; if the attendees weren’t already top salespeople, it’s at least somewhat more likely that the seminar helped improve their performance. (A) doesn’t establish that these tactics actually helped sales—perhaps the salespeople already knew these tactics. Moreover, this choice describes the last seminar, but the argument is about the benefits of attending the next seminar. (B) does not help make the case for attending the seminar. The author’s argument rests on the assumption that those who attended the seminar improved while those who didn’t attend did not improve. (B) does not address the comparison. Indeed, if overall sales were up, then it’s possible everyone did better and not just people who attended the seminar. (C) weakens the argument by bringing up a potential alternative explanation. Maybe the book was responsible and not the seminar itself. (D) is an irrelevant comparison. How the sales manager’s company compares to other companies has nothing to do with whether the seminar was effective.