Obviously we won't know for sure until the season is over and the actual applicant volumes get published, but from what I know and what I can sense, the applicant volumes are likely to be flat overall compared to last year.
Last summer, a lot of us (adm consultants, adcoms, media, etc.) thought that volumes were really going to spike, but that was predicated on the fact that the downturn would be short lived (remember that this was way before the house crumbled in October).
Another not-so-insignificant factor is money. A good chunk of the applicant pool at all US schools (whether they are "top" schools or just regional schools) are from outside the US. And when the student loan/cosigner situation is in limbo, it would have a real impact on applicants. No point in lining up to gain access to the club if you can't pay the cover charge. Not to mention that anyone who has had any money in the markets has lost 20-60% of their savings depending on their portfolio mix. So a lot of folks simply can't afford to go.