I don’t know about others, but I heard the same thing from Johnson AdCom staff. We talked about it in length and came up with several reasons:
1. A large portions of R1 applicants are from the finance sector, which was hit hard long before the R1 deadlines, and the applicants hoped to ride out the recession in B schools and rushed to apply R1
2. Some younger people who had plans to apply begin to realize the recession probably will last longer. The economy may not recover if they graduate in 2011. They’ve decided to postpone their application for a couple years
3. Those who are unsure about the job market in 2011 decide to hold on their current jobs instead of going to school
4. Even without non-cosigner loans, a lot of international applicants applied R1 anyway, because they had confidence the world’s top B schools should have not problem securing a replacement. When they realize there will not be such a loan program this year, they lost faith and decide not to apply because they can’t afford anyway.