Hi gmattester,
I feel the urge to reply to a few of your points:
ad1) I doubt the validity of this statement, why would GMAC use an inferior product for the actual test? Agreed, there is a certain number of questions that do not count towards your actual score on the actual GMAT, but those are needed as GMAC needs to refresh it's question pool every 31 days and needs to pretest new questions. However, I have not seen any evidence that GMATprep counts all questions asked. Until you do know both scoring algorithms, this statement is unfortunately unqualified.
ad2) Ok, I agree with you here, you take the exam more often and likely your score will fall in something like a 'personalized' gaussian distribution. But what does that really help you with for the B-school admissions process? If you have taken the exam 3+times, I'd bet you that adcom will question why you have done so. Again, experimental question play no role in any of this!
ad3) Again, what is the relevance if most business schools will tell you that taking the GMAT 3+ times tells them that you lack the ability to prepare efficiently and misjudge your own preparedness. There is no luck involved here, just like roulette: let's say you answered a 650 level question correctly, the program will throw you a 700level question let's say. You are right that question could be discrete probability (which you suck at) or it could be a tricky geometry question (which you are awesome at), so you feel like maybe you get lucky with a question or two, but with a truly adaptive test, it will randomly pick from the pool of questions that are appropriate for that level. Again true, there are certain concepts that will receive more questions than others, but those relative distributions are known, thus you train for them. No luck involved here in my opinion.
ad4) Sure if you run into an RC section that you have background knowledge in it will help you tremendously! I ran into this quite frequently in my prep with RC practice sessions, coincidentally though I did not have this advantage on the real exam. However, in my opinion I just as well could have. So again, in my opinion this was random, but I suppose it could be perceived as luck/bad luck. But let me point out another factor to you, math is a universal language and many people with very limited English skills will be able to perform extraordinarily on the GMAT quantitative section, but they will fail miserably in the verbal question. While you may argue the SC questions are no more than applying the rules of grammar (similar to mathematical principals) to a problem set, you first need to develop a sound understanding of the English language. Something that takes most of us years. Let's not even go into the command of English you need for the RC or CR questions, it is apparent that the average non-native English speaker is at a disadvantage here. Again, Luck will do you no good in this situation, it is practice and practice and more practice.
Brings me to my point Numero Uno:
The GMAT is a very 'trainable' exam, however it does require a certain foundation (!) of elementary mathematical concepts and more importantly a comprehensive (!) command of the English language. In my opinion this is clearly reflected in the overall importance of the verbal score for the composite score where with let's say a xx percentile quantitative score and a yy percentile verbal score with xx<yy you will end up with a higher score compared to a yy percentile quantitative score and a xx percentile verbal score.
I suppose my bottom line is: Having luck/bad luck on the GMAT is a misconception.