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Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by

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Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 07:00
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A
B
C
D
E

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50% (01:04) correct 50% (01:13) wrong based on 1349 sessions

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OA after discussions

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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 11:10
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This is an evaluate question. We need to identify the central assumption and find an answer choice that, when answered, would either strengthen or weaken the conclusion.

The argument is: Because 92% of motorcyclists involved in bad motorcycle accidents have never taken a safety course (evidence), there would be fewer bad motorcycle accidents if more motorcyclists took safety courses (conclusion).

A shift in scope underpins the central assumption: that motorcyclists involved in bad motorcycle accidents (the sample) are representative of motorcyclists in general (the group). We have data on the sample (92% don't have training), but we need a way to compare that data to similar data for the group as a whole.

So we can expect that the answer will address the sample's representativeness in some way.

A - Correct. If significantly more than 8% of motorcyclists in general (the group) have taken a safety course, we can then compare that to the implied 8% of the sample who have taken a safety course. For instance, if 25% of the group has taken a safety course, but only 8% of the sample has taken a safety course, then there's a strong negative correlation between motorcyclists who have taken safety courses and those who have been involved in bad accidents. This strengthens the argument. Now let's say that only 1% of the group has taken a safety course; that means that there's a strong positive correlation between motorcyclists who have taken safety courses and those who have been involved in bad accidents. This weakens the argument.
B - Out of scope; argument says nothing about passengers
C - Also out of scope; we're not interested in comparing between different safety courses.
D - A few previous posters selected this, so let's puzzle it out. It mentions the 92% proportion and so might address representativeness--but it only mentions the 92% in connection with collisions with other vehicles in motion, which is irrelevant. Note that we're no longer talking about the 92% of motorcyclists involved in bad accidents without training; we're talking about 92% of all bad accidents. This is a shift in scope.
E - Also out of scope; we're not interested in the influence of size/speed, but taking vs. not-taking a safety course
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 07:32
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I go with D.

Since if we find that 92 % of accident are due to collision between motorcyclist and other vehicles. Then it will definitely support the argument of motorcyclist taking course.
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 08:28
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Premise:
Motorcycle safety courses teach handling own vehicle and sharing road with other vehicles
92% of ppl who had accident = not attended the safety course
Will increase in ppl taking safety course help?

1. whether 8% of overall motorist have taken or not doesn't make a difference.
2. Could be. But we have no information about the no. of motorists with pillion riders
3. Irrelevant
4.more than 92% of serious accident bcoz of collision with another vehicle. Seems some lessons on sharing road with other vehicles will help. Yes. Correct
5. size and speed might be reason for accident but again we don't have any statistics
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 09:34
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A, I have my reasoning based on statistics that i can see.

Here it goes, The argument asks us to evaluate the data that "92 percent of serious accidents involve people who did not have training" and its impact on the argument. So the obvious question that arises is: Whether that number 92 percent is also equal to the number of people who are not trained and if that is the case then stats do not show anything surprising. But if on the other hand lets say that 90 percent of people are trained and rest 10 percent are not trained and only the 10 percent are involved in accident then the data does not help.

Will explain more if thinking is correct.
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 09:37
I would say D. in order to evaluate the 92% makes sense or not - B C and E are not talking about that.
A is different 8% then % in question. it Leave only D. but i could be wrong :-)
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 10:17
Well someone has found the right answer. Lets wait for others.
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 14:35
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Marcab wrote:
OA after discussions



Applying the variance test we can simply check the validity of the conclusion and reach at the correct answer in " evaluate the argument " type of questions.. here we need to swing the conclusion " if more motorcyclists took this course , there would be fewer motorcycle accidents...Clearly A is the correct choice here ..

As option A says.. Whether significantly more than 8% of motorcyclists in general (the group) have taken a safety course..

If we answer No to his question and assume that may be only 8% or 9% of motorcyclist have taken the safety course ..it clearly strengthens the conclusion ..As motorcyclist not involved in accidents is 8% and if all of them have taken a safety course or if only 1% of those who have taken the course met with an accident then the argument conclusion is obviously strengthened .. as those who are taking the course are not involved in accident , thus if more people took this course lesser accidents..

If we answer yes to the option A i.e significantly higher than 8% of that group has taken the course ..assume 50%..this means that lots of motorcyclists who took the course still met with an accident coz only 8% did not meet an accident ..so may be 42% of those who took the course met with an accident ..so clearly conclusion is weakened ..as the course does not guarantee lesser accidents..
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 19:25
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Answer D is clearly a TRAP! It creates a confusion on stats presented: "92% of people involved in serious accidents didn't take course" is different than "92% of people involved in serious accidents with other vehicles".
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 04 Oct 2013, 23:19
IMO E,

The premise talks of 2 reasons for dcreasing serious accidents:

1. Handling techniques
2. Safely sharing road with other users

Only E talks of a motorcycle's size and potential speed influencing the risk of serious accidents.

A careful look at D reveals that it talks of 92% of serious motor accidents whereas premise talks of 92% of the motorcyclists involved in serious accidents-2 different sets. Hence, it is out of scope and wrong.


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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 05 Oct 2013, 08:51
argha wrote:
IMO E,

The premise talks of 2 reasons for dcreasing serious accidents:

1. Handling techniques
2. Safely sharing road with other users

Only E talks of a motorcycle's size and potential speed influencing the risk of serious accidents.

A careful look at D reveals that it talks of 92% of serious motor accidents whereas premise talks of 92% of the motorcyclists involved in serious accidents-2 different sets. Hence, it is out of scope and wrong.


Regards

Argha



agreed ... this provides reasons for accidents other than the ones mentioned ... please post OA
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 05 Oct 2013, 10:11
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IMO A.

Here,

Conclusion: If more motorcyclists took motorcycle-safety driving courses, there would be fewer accidents (Cause-effect relation)
Evidence: 92% of the motorcyclists involved in the accidents had never taken any motorcycle-safety driving course.

Pre-Thinking:
The argument basically says that evaluate this sample statistical evidence i.e. whether indeed this represents the above mentioned causal relation. Immediate doubt should come what if the sample itself contained more motorcyclists without any motorcycle-safety course i.e. data is misrepresented and skewed towards proving the causal relation itself.

We need to analyze whether remaining 8% of the motorcyclists of the statistical evidence truly represents the motorcyclists with motorcycle-safety course or they are underestimated.

The correct answer should re-phrase this. A allows us to this rephrasing and evaluation of the argument and causal relation.

B. Irrelevant as we are not concerned about the risk of driving alone or with any other person accompanied.
C. Simply Out of Scope.
D too is irrelevant here since looking at it closely we can see that this option fails to prove and evaluate the causal relation here.
E. Irrelevant. It doesn't address the conclusion or rather causal relation. Size and speed are irrelevant.

Hence IMO A.
Please provide the OA. Really good question.
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jun 2014, 11:06
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I think answer should have been phrased more precisely.

Cause : Courses
Effect: fewer serious accidents

Data: 92%(of serious accidents) didn't take course.

Assume 100 accidents

92 didn't take course
8 took course.

Now by this data author concludes that courses-> few accidents.

However,we don't have data about how many of total motorcyclists had courses.

If 1000 took course and only 8 met with accident then course is fruitful.

If 8 took course and 8 met with the accident, then course is not fruitful.
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 01 Jun 2014, 11:39
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LET Y NUMBER OF SERIOUS ACCIDENTS........
0.08Y ARE TRAINED, 0.92Y ARE NOT TRAINED

FIRST SCENARIO......LET X MOTORCYCLYSTS------
.09X HAVE TRAINED, .91 X HAVE NOT

RATIO OF ACCIDENT-----TRAINED- .08Y/.09X= 8Y/9X ........UNTRAINED- 0.92Y/0.91X=92Y/91X........TRAINING IS USEFUL

SECOND SCENARIO---........07 X TRAINED, .93X DID NOT..................

RATIO OF ACCIDENT...... TRAINED- 8X/7Y.......UNTRAINED- 92Y/93X............TRAINING IS NOT USEFUL


"A"IS THE CORRECT ANSWER...........


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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 14 Nov 2014, 22:34
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Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by a number of organizations, teach motorcyclists important techniques for handling and for safely sharing the road with other road users. If more motorcyclists took these courses, there would be fewer serious motorcycle accidents. Data show that 92% of the motorcyclists who are involved in a serious motorcycle accident have never taken a motorcycle-safety course.

In assessing whether the data cited provided support for the position taken about motorcyclists' taking the courses, it would be most useful to determine which of the following?

- Whether significantly more than eight percent of motorcyclists have taken a motorcycle-safety course -> Correct
92% didn't take the course and suppose 8% have taken the course who were not involve the accident -> Supports the argument
Suppose only 1% out of 8% who have taken the course were not involved in the accident. Then there is some other reason for this observation-> Weakens the argument


- Whether it is riskier for a motorcyclist to ride with a passenger behind the rider than to ride alone - OFS
- Whether the different organizations that offer motorcycle-safety courses differ in the content of the courses that they offer - OFS
- Whether more than 92% of serious motorcycle accidents involve collisions between a motorcycle and another vehicle in motion. - OFS
Serious accidents is a subset of accidents caused by the issues addressed in the courses. The premise has already mentioned that. It is irrelevant to mention it again.

- Whether variations in the size and potential speed of a motorcycle influence the risk of a serious accident's occurring. - OFS
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 28 Dec 2014, 13:16
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The data talks about [part] drivers who were involved in accidents, but the argument makes conclusion about [whole] all drivers.

100 drivers met with an accident
92 drivers did not take the course
8 drivers took the course but still met with an accident

to evaluate the argument we need to find a relation between the subset and the whole group.

1000 drivers
say 8 % took the course and 92% did not

then 80 took the course - out of 80 drivers, 8 met with an accident. this percentage is 8/80 = 10%
920 did not take the course - out of 920 drivers, 92 met with an accident. this percentage is again 10%.
This weakens the argument.

similarly, we can take the other extreme and show that it strengthens the argument.

Thus A is the correct choice.
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jun 2015, 03:30
Marcab wrote:
OA after discussions



this question is repeated many times on og and gmatprep.

how to criticize.

if 92 percent of persons involved in an accident do not take the course, the course is good

but what if
92 percent or more of person NOT involve in an accident also do not take the course

the evidence is INVALID and argument fall apart.

and that mean less than 8 percent do not take the course which choice A show.

HARD one .
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Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by [#permalink]

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New post 30 Aug 2015, 12:48
i find that i got trapped since argument speaks about motorcyclists who are involved in a serious accident, and answer choice talks about all motorcyclists, so i ruled it out as comparing two different subsets of data.

So to that, is it just a poorly written question or is it like that on purpose? and if on purpose, how do u reconcile comparing two subsets of data?
Re: Motorcycle-safety courses, offered by   [#permalink] 30 Aug 2015, 12:48

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