Newspaper article: Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when

Question

Newspaper article: Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant. Thus, in high-yield years, growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses until after the following year’s harvest, hoping for higher prices then. This year’s pecan crop was the smallest in five years. It is unlikely, therefore, that any of this year’s crop will be held back.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

A. Each of the last two years produced record-breaking pecan yields, and an unusually high percentage of last year’s crop was held back.

B. The quality of this year’s pecan crop is typical of the quality of the pecan crops of the previous five years.

C. Because of the practice of holding back part of the crop from especially high-yield years, pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years.

D. For some pecan growers, this year’s crop was no smaller than last year’s.

E. The last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year’s crop in anticipation of higher prices the next year had not yet become widespread.

MartyMurray · Answer

Newspaper article: Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant. Thus, in high-yield years, growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses until after the following year’s harvest, hoping for higher prices then. This year’s pecan crop was the smallest in five years. It is unlikely, therefore, that any of this year’s crop will be held back.

Conclusion of the argument:

It is unlikely, therefore, that any of this year’s crop will be held back.

Support:

This year’s pecan crop was the smallest in five years.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

The correct answer to this Weaken question will show that, even though the evidence is true, the conclusion may not be.

A. Each of the last two years produced record-breaking pecan yields, and an unusually high percentage of last year’s crop was held back.

This choice is interesting.

After all, it indicates that, while this years crop was small, pecans are still "abundant" because of the yields of the last two y ears.

So, farmers may have a reason to hold back part of this year's crop as well.

This choice isn't a super clear weakener, but since none of the other choices work at all, we can safely select this one.

Keep.

B. The quality of this year’s pecan crop is typical of the quality of the pecan crops of the previous five years.

The quantity not the "quality" is what causes farmers to hold back part of the crop.

Also, if the crop was "typical," then nothing special occurred to cause farmers to hold back part of the crop.

Eliminate.

C. Because of the practice of holding back part of the crop from especially high-yield years, pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years.

This indicates that the practice as used has been working, making the conclusion likely to be true because farmers will likely do what they typically do if it has been working.

Eliminate.

D. For some pecan growers, this year’s crop was no smaller than last year’s.

It has been established that the total crop was "the smallest in five years." Thus, this was not a high-yield year.

Some outliers don't change that.

Eliminate.

E. The last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year’s crop in anticipation of higher prices the next year had not yet become widespread.

What was the case in the past doesn't affect current practices.

Eliminate.

Correct answer:  A

guddo · Answer

Newspaper article: Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when pecans are comparatively scarce, but the price drops sharply when pecans are abundant. Thus, in high-yield years, growers often hold back part of their crop in refrigerated warehouses until after the following year’s harvest, hoping for higher prices then. This year’s pecan crop was the smallest in five years. It is unlikely, therefore, that any of this year’s crop will be held back.
 
 Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

The argument assumes that because this year’s crop is small, pecans will be scarce, so growers will have no reason to hold back any of this year’s crop.  The weakness is that total supply may include stored pecans from earlier crops , not just  this year’s crop .

A. Each of the last two years produced record-breaking pecan yields, and an unusually high percentage of last year’s crop was held back.

This is correct. If last year’s huge crop was heavily held back, then many stored pecans may enter the market after this year’s harvest. That could keep prices low despite this year’s small crop, giving growers a reason to hold back some of this year’s crop.

B. The quality of this year’s pecan crop is typical of the quality of the pecan crops of the previous five years.

This does not weaken the argument. It says nothing about supply, price, or the incentive to hold back pecans.

C. Because of the practice of holding back part of the crop from especially high-yield years, pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years.

This does not directly weaken the conclusion. It suggests holding back stabilizes prices, but it does not show that any of this year’s small crop is likely to be held back.

D. For some pecan growers, this year’s crop was no smaller than last year’s.

This is too weak. The argument is about whether any of this year’s crop is likely to be held back overall, and “some growers” does not show a broad reason to expect holding back.

E. The last time the pecan crop was as small as it was this year, the practice of holding back part of one year’s crop in anticipation of higher prices the next year had not yet become widespread.

This does not weaken the argument. It gives historical background but does not show that growers have a reason to hold back this year’s crop.

Answer: (A)

vanshikajain1606 · Answer

A - If most of last year's crop was help back, it would have been used this year. Then this year's yield even though it was lowest, would have to be kept for next year so that the current year's price don't drop further

janvibatra.50 · Answer

Can C not weaken the question by implying that since the past few years have not seen any big fluctuations in prices, farmers might want to continue gatekeeping their crops in case an big shift occurs?

guddo · Answer

C does not weaken because it talks about the effect of holding back crops from especially high-yield years.

The conclusion is about this year’s crop, which was the smallest in five years. C gives no reason to think growers would hold back part of a scarce crop.

Also, saying prices have not fluctuated sharply does not mean growers will hold back crops “in case” prices change. That is an extra assumption.

So  C supports the general usefulness of the storage practice , but only for the usual situation:  high-yield years , not a low-yield year like this one.

egmat · Answer

Hi janvibatra.50,

Your instinct to test C is good, but the reasoning you're attaching to it isn't actually inside the stimulus.

Let's pin down what the argument says growers do, and then check whether C gives any reason to do it here.

What the stimulus tells us about when growers hold back

They hold back  in high-yield years , because abundance pushes prices down. The trigger is  abundance now , with the hope of selling into scarcity next year. The stimulus does  not  say growers hold back as insurance against some unknown future shift - that's a motive you're importing from outside.

Now read C with that lens

"Because of the practice of holding back part of the crop from especially high-yield years, pecan prices have not been subject to sharp fluctuations in recent years."

C is telling us the practice has been  working  - it has stabilized prices. But notice what C does  not  say:

- It doesn't say this year is a high-yield year (it isn't - it's the smallest in  five  years).
- It doesn't say growers hold back from small-yield years.
- It doesn't say growers are anticipating any big shift.

So C gives no mechanism that would make growers hold back from  this  small crop. If anything, C reinforces the argument: the practice worked, and the conditions that trigger it (a high-yield year) aren't present, so it's unlikely to happen this year.

The word-play test - when would C weaken?

Watch how the right answer shifts if we change C slightly:

- If C said  "growers hold back even in low-yield years to guard against future price drops"  - that would weaken, because it would directly attack the link between "small crop" and "no hold-back."
- As actually written, C only describes a  past stabilizing effect , not a  present incentive  to hold back a small crop.

That's why  A  is the real weakener: it tells us a huge amount of last year's crop was held back, which means stored pecans will flood the market alongside this year's small harvest - making total supply abundant again, and giving growers a reason to hold back even now.

Answer: A

Newspaper article: Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when

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Newspaper article: Pecan growers get a high price for their crop when

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