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# Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win

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Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win  [#permalink]

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01 May 2018, 23:36
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Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win the upcoming election. She only trails her opponent by one percentage point among male voters, but her strong favorability with women has her leading by three full percentage points among female voters.

Which of the following, if true, would most call the argument above into question?

A. Polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes.

B. Female voters make up less than one quarter of all voters.

C. It is not uncommon for voters to change their minds even within minutes of casting their votes.

D. Not everyone in the electorate has taken part in the referenced polls.

E. Labour candidates have traditionally been unsuccessful with this electorate.

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Re: Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win  [#permalink]

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01 May 2018, 23:44
Bunuel wrote:
Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win the upcoming election. She only trails her opponent by one percentage point among male voters, but her strong favorability with women has her leading by three full percentage points among female voters.

Which of the following, if true, would most call the argument above into question?

A. Polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes.

B. Female voters make up less than one quarter of all voters.

C. It is not uncommon for voters to change their minds even within minutes of casting their votes.

D. Not everyone in the electorate has taken part in the referenced polls.

E. Labour candidates have traditionally been unsuccessful with this electorate.

Ans: B (IMO)

Because what given is she trails 1% among Male voters and 3% lead among female voters but we don't know the actual numbers of male and female voters. so B clarifies that Female voters make up less than one quarter of all voters thus B is the ans.
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Re: Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win  [#permalink]

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02 May 2018, 00:01
Ans is B

suppose 10000 male voters then 250 female voters(one quarter of male)
since 1% lead so in favour 4950 against 5050.(male voters)
3 % lead among female voters so in favour 129 and against 121

favour against
4950 5050
129 121
5079 5171 - total
This will be the case with any no we chose. So conclusion(Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win the upcoming election. ) will fall.
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Re: Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win  [#permalink]

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02 May 2018, 05:21
IMO B

Assumption here is voters make up an equal count of Male and Female.
B considerably weakens this Assumption.

+1 if this helps

Bunuel wrote:
Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win the upcoming election. She only trails her opponent by one percentage point among male voters, but her strong favorability with women has her leading by three full percentage points among female voters.

Which of the following, if true, would most call the argument above into question?

A. Polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes.

B. Female voters make up less than one quarter of all voters.

C. It is not uncommon for voters to change their minds even within minutes of casting their votes.

D. Not everyone in the electorate has taken part in the referenced polls.

E. Labour candidates have traditionally been unsuccessful with this electorate.

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Re: Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win  [#permalink]

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02 May 2018, 13:31
Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win the upcoming election. She only trails her opponent by one percentage point among male voters, but her strong favorability with women has her leading by three full percentage points among female voters.

Which of the following, if true, would most call the argument above into question?

A. Polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes. good to know but does not weaken.

B. Female voters make up less than one quarter of all voters. correct choice

C. It is not uncommon for voters to change their minds even within minutes of casting their votes. Can't say, as those favoring the male candidate could also send up voting the female candidate and vice versa.

D. Not everyone in the electorate has taken part in the referenced polls. Not everyone, but if the polling has covered 99% of the population, the results are almost available.

E. Labour candidates have traditionally been unsuccessful with this electorate. Irrelevant
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Re: Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win  [#permalink]

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07 May 2018, 01:24
Bunuel wrote:
Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win the upcoming election. She only trails her opponent by one percentage point among male voters, but her strong favorability with women has her leading by three full percentage points among female voters.

Which of the following, if true, would most call the argument above into question?

A. Polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes.

B. Female voters make up less than one quarter of all voters.

C. It is not uncommon for voters to change their minds even within minutes of casting their votes.

D. Not everyone in the electorate has taken part in the referenced polls.

E. Labour candidates have traditionally been unsuccessful with this electorate.

VERITAS PREP OFFICIAL SOLUTION:

Whenever Critical Reasoning problems involve statistics it's a good idea to look at those statistics with a skeptical eye. Here you're told that, in the polls, the Labour candidate has a 3% advantage with women and a 1% disadvantage with men, and that leads to the conclusion that the polls suggest she will win.

But remember - a classic data flaw is that of the imbalanced groups (the classic "more people die in their beds each year than by climbing Mount Everest, so therefore it's safer to climb Everest than to take a nap?" fallacy where way almost everyone at some point lays in a bed but virtually no one climbs Mount Everest). What if, in this particular electorate, there were just way, way more males than females?

Choice (B), the correct answer, addresses that. If females are less than 1/4 of the electorate, then the three points she gains with females is fewer votes than the point she loses with males. To prove this you could set up the math as:

M > 3F (the ratio of M:F is greater than 3:1)

Then if she has a 3% advantage in the number of females but a 1% deficit in the number of males, she's looking at a total advantage of:

3F - 1M

Where, if M >3F, that becomes: 3F - (>3)F

So her advantage is negative. For that reason (B) is correct, as it shows that a 3% advantage among females is not enough to suggest an overall advantage.

Among the other choices, note the analyst's exact conclusion, that "polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win." She isn't quite claiming that the candidate will win, but instead concluding that the polling suggests that she will win. That renders tempting choices (A), (C), and (D) incorrect: with this specific conclusion it doesn't matter if the polls directly connect to a win, just that they suggest a win. Similarly (D) is irrelevant, as this conclusion isn't about historical context, but rather what these polls say about this particular election.
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Re: Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win  [#permalink]

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20 Feb 2019, 23:33
Premise#1: the candidate trails her opponent by 1% among male voters
Premise#2: the candidate leads her opponents by 3% among female voters
Conclusion: the candidate will win the election
Logic: the candidate will win because she leads her opponents by 3% among female voters and trails by only 1% among male voters

If the absolute value of 3% among female voters is greater than absolute value of 1% among male voters then the candidate will win and vice-versa. But the argument fails to clarify this.

Re: Political Analyst: Polling suggests that the Labour candidate will win   [#permalink] 20 Feb 2019, 23:33
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