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Akshaynandurkar
Joined: 29 Apr 2023
Last visit: 19 Jan 2025
Posts: 68
Location: India
GMAT Focus 1: 635 Q84 V86 DI74 
GMAT Focus 1: 635 Q84 V86 DI74
Posts: 68
"When that team is the home team ..." is very important line to understand to answer this question correctly. "That team " here is referred to the team from the previous sentence - the team that scores the first goal . Now there is more than 50% chance the team that scores the first goal is likely to score that goal in first half and if THAT team is the home team then there is more than 50% chance that opponent of THAT team scores at least 1 goal
hence the answer is IF the home team scores the first goal then the opponent team scores one or more goals
hence the answer is IF the home team scores the first goal then the opponent team scores one or more goals
parkhydel
Posts: 67
OK, I spent 5 minutes on this but I figured out the reason this is in non math related and an official question it's just eliminating the options until you find one that has a follow up mentioned in the stem and choose it it's the fastest and least confusing method to solve this.
chetan2u
Sorry, I don’t get the need for 50%.
Question asks for any explicit probability estimate for Y provided X happened.
I don’t see any other explicit probability for a final sequential event other than OA. Even if it was say 20% I think it would have fit.
Am I missing something?
Guys, I also struggled with this question for quite a while too. But I feel that students in this discussion are thinking about it wrongly. This is not a stats or a quant question.
It is truly just a verbal/RC style question, where you have to identify/recognise whether or not the STATISTICIAN'S ESTIMATE of the probabilities of a certain event to take place is provided in the above paragraph/the information provided to you.
Look closely at the other options. The information provided DOES NOT contain the probability estimates of those events, as given by the statistician. Take any other X,Y combination, and you will see that the information provided DOES NOT give us the statistician's estimate of the probabilities of that event (in that order) happening.
It's not a stats question saying "if X happens, then what WILL happen with 100% probability". It is just saying, "do we know the stats dude's estimate of the probability of this happening". And the inference "If X happens then what is the probability of Y happening by more than 50%" to me seems blatantly wrong. GMAC isn't a fool - and that is definitely a poor inference in my opinion.
It is truly just a verbal/RC style question, where you have to identify/recognise whether or not the STATISTICIAN'S ESTIMATE of the probabilities of a certain event to take place is provided in the above paragraph/the information provided to you.
Look closely at the other options. The information provided DOES NOT contain the probability estimates of those events, as given by the statistician. Take any other X,Y combination, and you will see that the information provided DOES NOT give us the statistician's estimate of the probabilities of that event (in that order) happening.
It's not a stats question saying "if X happens, then what WILL happen with 100% probability". It is just saying, "do we know the stats dude's estimate of the probability of this happening". And the inference "If X happens then what is the probability of Y happening by more than 50%" to me seems blatantly wrong. GMAC isn't a fool - and that is definitely a poor inference in my opinion.
GMAT 1: 710 Q48 V40
Posts: 151
This is an excellent way of looking at things!
Basically saying hey if you know X is it sufficient for you to find the exact probability from info given of Y happening!
Basically saying hey if you know X is it sufficient for you to find the exact probability from info given of Y happening!
avohra223
rishabhj197
official explanation
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GMAT 1: 740 Q50 V40
Posts: 132
I spent 10 minutes on this one and thought all answers are wrong. It turns out that I missed several words.
The question asks [explicitly includes the statistician's estimates of the probability that if X occurs, so will Y].
I just skimmed through the bold and underlined portion and thought it asks [if X happen, then Y must happen]. Didn't pay attention to the prompt, which asks only if I could deduce the Probability of Y...
_________________
The question asks [explicitly includes the statistician's estimates of the probability that if X occurs, so will Y].
I just skimmed through the bold and underlined portion and thought it asks [if X happen, then Y must happen]. Didn't pay attention to the prompt, which asks only if I could deduce the Probability of Y...
_________________
Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek. - Obama
Official Answer Explanation (from GMAC):
Recognize
The key information for determining outcomes X and Y such that if X occurs, then so does Y is “When that team (where ‘that team’ refers to the team that scores the first goal) is the home team ..., there is ... a 60% chance that it (where ‘it’ refers to the other team) will score one or more goals.” Therefore, from the given information, if the home team scores the first goal, the statistician’s estimate of the probability that the team opposing the home team scores at least one goal is 0.6.
RO1: Recognize
The correct answer is The home team scores the first goal.
RO2: Recognize
The correct answer is The team opposing the home team scores at least one goal.
Recognize
The key information for determining outcomes X and Y such that if X occurs, then so does Y is “When that team (where ‘that team’ refers to the team that scores the first goal) is the home team ..., there is ... a 60% chance that it (where ‘it’ refers to the other team) will score one or more goals.” Therefore, from the given information, if the home team scores the first goal, the statistician’s estimate of the probability that the team opposing the home team scores at least one goal is 0.6.
RO1: Recognize
The correct answer is The home team scores the first goal.
RO2: Recognize
The correct answer is The team opposing the home team scores at least one goal.
Posts: 22
I also got confused with the phrase "the probability that if X occurs, so will Y", and here's what Claude has to say about it:
Quote:
And that resolves my doubt, and the answer seems in coherence with this logic.
Honestly I hate this question, but here is what I finally was able to understand:
Events:
W -> Team wins
L -> Team loses
D -> Team Draws
H -> Home Team
F -> Team that scores the first goal
H1 -> First goal in First half
H2 -> First goal in second half
OP1 -> Opponent scores at least one goal
OP0 -> Opponent scores 0 goals
What is the question asking, find for X and Y such that the statisticians estimate for P(Y|X) is given.
So let's put the statisticians estimates into the form P(X|Y):
P(W|H) = 0.45 (Given that the team is home team, the prob of that team winning)
P(L|H) = 0.25 (Given that the team is home team, the prob of that team losing)
P(D|H) = 0.3 (Given that the team is home team, the prob of that team drawing)
P(H1|F) = 0.55 (Given that the team is the one that scores the first goal, the prob of that goal happening in the first half)
P(H2|F) = 0.45 (Given that the team is the one that scores the first goal, the prob of that goal happening in the Second half)
P(OP1| F & H) = 0.6 (Given that the team that scores the first goal is the home team, the prob that the opponent scores at least one goal)
P(OP0| F & H) = 0.4 (Given that the team that scores the first goal is the home team, the prob that the opponent scores 0 goals)
Now let's look at the options:
The home team scores at least two goals in the game. (Scoring multiple goals is talked about for the opponent not the home team. This prob is not given)
The home team scores the first goal. (We have probabilities where this happens P(OP1| F & H) & P(OP0| F & H))
A goal is scored in the first half of the game. (We don't care about a goal, but instead the first goal. None of the prob given are related to just a goal)
A goal is scored in the second half of the game. (We don't care about a goal, but instead the first goal. None of the prob given are related to just a goal)
The team opposing the home team scores at least one goal. (We have a probability where this happens P(OP1| F & H))
So we have exactly P(OP1 | F & H) = 0.6. So therefore X = The home team scores the first goal. (F&H) ; Y = The team opposing the home team scores at least one goal. (OP1)
Events:
W -> Team wins
L -> Team loses
D -> Team Draws
H -> Home Team
F -> Team that scores the first goal
H1 -> First goal in First half
H2 -> First goal in second half
OP1 -> Opponent scores at least one goal
OP0 -> Opponent scores 0 goals
What is the question asking, find for X and Y such that the statisticians estimate for P(Y|X) is given.
So let's put the statisticians estimates into the form P(X|Y):
P(W|H) = 0.45 (Given that the team is home team, the prob of that team winning)
P(L|H) = 0.25 (Given that the team is home team, the prob of that team losing)
P(D|H) = 0.3 (Given that the team is home team, the prob of that team drawing)
P(H1|F) = 0.55 (Given that the team is the one that scores the first goal, the prob of that goal happening in the first half)
P(H2|F) = 0.45 (Given that the team is the one that scores the first goal, the prob of that goal happening in the Second half)
P(OP1| F & H) = 0.6 (Given that the team that scores the first goal is the home team, the prob that the opponent scores at least one goal)
P(OP0| F & H) = 0.4 (Given that the team that scores the first goal is the home team, the prob that the opponent scores 0 goals)
Now let's look at the options:
The home team scores at least two goals in the game. (Scoring multiple goals is talked about for the opponent not the home team. This prob is not given)
The home team scores the first goal. (We have probabilities where this happens P(OP1| F & H) & P(OP0| F & H))
A goal is scored in the first half of the game. (We don't care about a goal, but instead the first goal. None of the prob given are related to just a goal)
A goal is scored in the second half of the game. (We don't care about a goal, but instead the first goal. None of the prob given are related to just a goal)
The team opposing the home team scores at least one goal. (We have a probability where this happens P(OP1| F & H))
So we have exactly P(OP1 | F & H) = 0.6. So therefore X = The home team scores the first goal. (F&H) ; Y = The team opposing the home team scores at least one goal. (OP1)
Yes Y will happen based upon the probability provided by the statistician.
If 6 out of 10 times an event happens according to the statistician, then those 6 time DO happen.
So if X happens Y will happen 60% of the time. They did mention that "information provided explicity INCLUDES statistician's estimates of probability."
Yes I still agree they can word it better but I think IMO it is borderline okay.
If 6 out of 10 times an event happens according to the statistician, then those 6 time DO happen.
So if X happens Y will happen 60% of the time. They did mention that "information provided explicity INCLUDES statistician's estimates of probability."
Yes I still agree they can word it better but I think IMO it is borderline okay.
shvm_sin7
Posts: 91
This GMAT Data Insights question has zero math in it. And 76% of test-takers still get it wrong!
No calculations. You just need to know what probability is — nothing beyond that.
This question gives you multiple facts that are all true — but true in different situations. A home team's win/loss/draw stats, any team's first-goal timing, and odds of other teams scoring against home teams all sound related. They're not all connected.
Here's the habit that fixes this: Every time you read a new statement, don't just ask "what does this tell me?" Also ask "when is this true?"
Whenever the context shifts, don't merge it with what you already had. Draw a new box. Keep it separate — until the question itself gives you permission to connect it.
Context is king. Get that right, and the question almost organizes itself.
I broke down the full question — and this exact thinking process — in the attached video.
Shweta Koshija
GMAT, GRE Expert for 11+ years
The question is really asking "When X happens, probability of Y is explicitly given" = P(y|x)=?
Basically: If x happens, what is the probability of Y happening?
It will be faster to look at the answer choices and find the two that create this conditonal proability.
The final sentence gives us an explicit conditional probability.
"When that team is the home team... there is a 40% chance that the other team will score no goals at all... a 60% chance that it will score one or more goals"
When the team is the home team ~> the home team is the team that scored first. ~> Then 60% chance that the other team will score 1 or more goals.
So...
x= home team scores the first goal.
y= The team opposign the home team scores at least one goal.
P(Y|X)=60%
You might fall into the "a goal is scored in the first half... 55%" answer
This isn't what the question is asking for though. The 55% refers specifically to the first scoring team, scoring its first goal in the firs half. It doesn't establish a conditional relationship between two of the provided answer choices.
The question is testing you on recognizing the structure "When X happens, probability of Y is explicily given"
"The team that scores first has a 55% chance of scoring it in the first half and a 45% of scoring it later." ~> the team that scores first..scores in the first half =/= "a goal is scored in the first half"
There could be a first-half goal that isn't the first goal of the game.
The final sentence is the only one that directly gives the relationship between two outcomes listed in the choices.
Basically: If x happens, what is the probability of Y happening?
It will be faster to look at the answer choices and find the two that create this conditonal proability.
The final sentence gives us an explicit conditional probability.
"When that team is the home team... there is a 40% chance that the other team will score no goals at all... a 60% chance that it will score one or more goals"
When the team is the home team ~> the home team is the team that scored first. ~> Then 60% chance that the other team will score 1 or more goals.
So...
x= home team scores the first goal.
y= The team opposign the home team scores at least one goal.
P(Y|X)=60%
You might fall into the "a goal is scored in the first half... 55%" answer
This isn't what the question is asking for though. The 55% refers specifically to the first scoring team, scoring its first goal in the firs half. It doesn't establish a conditional relationship between two of the provided answer choices.
The question is testing you on recognizing the structure "When X happens, probability of Y is explicily given"
"The team that scores first has a 55% chance of scoring it in the first half and a 45% of scoring it later." ~> the team that scores first..scores in the first half =/= "a goal is scored in the first half"
There could be a first-half goal that isn't the first goal of the game.
The final sentence is the only one that directly gives the relationship between two outcomes listed in the choices.
parkhydel
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