Over the past two years, our website has converted a consistent 3% of its visitors into sales, with very little fluctuation. Clearly, then, our goal for the upcoming year should be to raise the number of visitors to our site by any means necessary. If we can double our number of visitors by casting a wider net on pay-per-click advertising and by creating site content that is more search-engine friendly, we'll double our sales.
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
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The goals of the Marketing Director have to be admired however the logic behind his or her tactics are flawed in many ways. Salesmen are quick to correlate cause and effect as triggers, but fail to see other possible factors that could cause the phenomenon, in this case, sales. The MD assumes couple of factors that drive sales: the accessibility to the website and a 2 year trend is representative. He or she also neglects the impact of 'casting a wider net' as opposed to other methods of increasing sales.
The assumption that doubling the number of visitors doubles the amount of sales is short sighted. It fails to recognize that the market could be saturated and that the absolute quantity of 3% of visitors is the entire market that is looking for the product or service from this website. For example if 3% represents 300 people that need a certain medicine for a specific indication and they are the entire market, any increase in awareness of your product will not drive sales past the 300 people with this disease. Understanding the market share and breakdown of this product or service would help bring more sound logic to this assumption. If we proove that competitors offer a similar product then we could infer there is demand beyond the 3% of visitors.
In the world of macro-economics, 2 years is not a significant amount of time and is a poor basis to ground any trend. Troughs and peaks of economies manifest themselves over at least 5-10 years. For example, this 2 year period could be a recession when only 3% of visitors would pay for this product. Conversely once the economy booms in subsequent years, sales doubles as well without making the 'content more search engine friendly.' Expensive services like lets say MBA tuition are more susceptible to low sales during tough times.
While sales are important, they are an indicator of profits; the MD neglects to address the impact of profits in his or her attempt to drive these changes. It could be more cost than its worth to double the number of visitors as your low hanging fruit of visitors is not as easily accessible and may cost more. In addition, a more effective product may raise the percentage of vistors that buy the product.
Overall, while the MD's intentions are correct he or she needs to address some glaring holes before executing this strategy. Especially around understanding the market demand, economic trends, and impact on the bottom line.
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