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Updated on: 12 Apr 2021, 20:09
Originally posted by lary301254M7 on 03 Dec 2018, 06:17.
Last edited by Guest on 12 Apr 2021, 20:09, edited 2 times in total.
Last edited by Guest on 12 Apr 2021, 20:09, edited 2 times in total.
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Prompt
“To reverse the deterioration of the postal service, the government should raise the price of postage stamps. This solution will no doubt prove effective, since the price increase will generate larger revenues and will also reduce the volume of mail, thereby eliminating the strain on the existing system and contributing to improved morale.”
Conclusion The government should raise the price of postage stamps
E1: the price increase will generate larger revenues
E2: the price increase will reduce the volume of mail thereby eliminating strains and contributing to improved morale.
Merely based on unfounded evidence, a lack of concrete data and unsubstantiated assumptions, the argument in news magazine draws the conclusion that the government, in order to save the failing postal service, ought to raise the price of postage stamps. To support this conclusion, the author points out increasing postage stamp price will increase the postal service’s overall revenue. The author further claims that reducing the volume of mail as a result of price increase will create additional benefits to help remedy the situation at hand. At first glance, the argument appears to be convincing. However, careful analysis reveals that the argument, in fact, suffers from many logical flaws.
First, the author assumes the price increase on the postal stamps will generate larger revenues. This premise is unfounded. It fails to consider the concept of supply and demand. If, for example, the supply of stamps is low and the consumer demand is high, the consumers are likely to pay for the newly set high price. Conversely, if the supply of stamps exceeds the demand for stamps, further increasing the price of stamps is unlikely to result in additional sales. Since the author did not provide any information regarding the supply and demand for postal stamps, it is impossible to determine whether the price increase will generate larger revenues.
Second, the author assumes revenue generated from price increase is enough to remedy the financial strain of postal service. This is a stretch. If, for example, the plan of the government generates four million dollars in sales and the postal service needs only three million dollars to recover from the deterioration, then the plan would work. However, if the plan did not generate enough money despite the increase in the price of postal stamps, then the postal service would continue to deteriorate nonetheless. Since the author did not provide sufficient data on certain key variables in the calculation, it is impossible to determine whether larger revenue will prevent the postal service from deterioration.
Finally, the author also assumes by reducing the volume of mail as a result of the price increase, the postal service will eliminate strains on the current system and experience improved morale. This premise is a stretch. If, for example, reduced volume of mail means the postal service would require fewer people to process the decrease numbers of mail, then there is a possibility that people who no longer process mails will have no use at work. And because people are of no use, they may not receive fulfillment at work thus experience a decrease in their morale. Since the author did not provide strong evidence for his claim, it is impossible to determine whether there will be improved morale at work.
In summary, the argument could be strengthened if the author had considered the supply and demand of postal stamps and other relevant factors. As it stands, however, the argument for government’s plan to reverse the deterioration of postal service is flawed for the reasons indicated.
P.S this is a practice AWA essay, and it took me longer than 30 minutes. However, I'd still want to share.
“To reverse the deterioration of the postal service, the government should raise the price of postage stamps. This solution will no doubt prove effective, since the price increase will generate larger revenues and will also reduce the volume of mail, thereby eliminating the strain on the existing system and contributing to improved morale.”
Conclusion The government should raise the price of postage stamps
E1: the price increase will generate larger revenues
E2: the price increase will reduce the volume of mail thereby eliminating strains and contributing to improved morale.
Merely based on unfounded evidence, a lack of concrete data and unsubstantiated assumptions, the argument in news magazine draws the conclusion that the government, in order to save the failing postal service, ought to raise the price of postage stamps. To support this conclusion, the author points out increasing postage stamp price will increase the postal service’s overall revenue. The author further claims that reducing the volume of mail as a result of price increase will create additional benefits to help remedy the situation at hand. At first glance, the argument appears to be convincing. However, careful analysis reveals that the argument, in fact, suffers from many logical flaws.
First, the author assumes the price increase on the postal stamps will generate larger revenues. This premise is unfounded. It fails to consider the concept of supply and demand. If, for example, the supply of stamps is low and the consumer demand is high, the consumers are likely to pay for the newly set high price. Conversely, if the supply of stamps exceeds the demand for stamps, further increasing the price of stamps is unlikely to result in additional sales. Since the author did not provide any information regarding the supply and demand for postal stamps, it is impossible to determine whether the price increase will generate larger revenues.
Second, the author assumes revenue generated from price increase is enough to remedy the financial strain of postal service. This is a stretch. If, for example, the plan of the government generates four million dollars in sales and the postal service needs only three million dollars to recover from the deterioration, then the plan would work. However, if the plan did not generate enough money despite the increase in the price of postal stamps, then the postal service would continue to deteriorate nonetheless. Since the author did not provide sufficient data on certain key variables in the calculation, it is impossible to determine whether larger revenue will prevent the postal service from deterioration.
Finally, the author also assumes by reducing the volume of mail as a result of the price increase, the postal service will eliminate strains on the current system and experience improved morale. This premise is a stretch. If, for example, reduced volume of mail means the postal service would require fewer people to process the decrease numbers of mail, then there is a possibility that people who no longer process mails will have no use at work. And because people are of no use, they may not receive fulfillment at work thus experience a decrease in their morale. Since the author did not provide strong evidence for his claim, it is impossible to determine whether there will be improved morale at work.
In summary, the argument could be strengthened if the author had considered the supply and demand of postal stamps and other relevant factors. As it stands, however, the argument for government’s plan to reverse the deterioration of postal service is flawed for the reasons indicated.
P.S this is a practice AWA essay, and it took me longer than 30 minutes. However, I'd still want to share.
07 Dec 2018, 09:29
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Here is another one: (completed in 29:55)
Merely based on unfounded assumptions and weak correlations, the argument in the newspaper editorial draws the conclusion that school board should use available funds to buy more computers and all the schools in the district should follow the same practice. To support this conclusion, the author claims that immediately after one high school started using interactive computer instruction, drop out rates have gone down. The author further points out that last year’s graduates have done well in college because of exposure to the computer instruction. At first glance, the argument appears to be convincing. However, careful analysis reveals that the argument, in fact, suffers from several logical flaws.
First, the author infers an effect of the use of interactive instruction on the school’s drop out rate. This is a stretch; correlation does not equate causation. There could have been other unstated factors that cause a rapid decline in drop out rates among students. If, for example, at the time Nova High School introduced the interactive computer instruction, a local philanthropist started a scholarship for at-risk students. If those students promise to stay in school and go to college, the philanthropist would fund their tuition. Perhaps, in that instance, students who were likely to drop out of high school would stay. Since the author did not disclose any other factor that may have impact student’s decision to stay in school, it is impossible to determine whether the interactive computer instruction can be attributed to the sudden decline in drop out rate.
Secondly, the author assumes that the reason recent graduates are doing well in college is because they were exposed to the interactive computer instruction in high school. This argument is an oversimplification. It fails to consider the possibility that students may receive a better education or have much better teachers in college. If, for example, students meet renown college professors who are excellent teachers, students may learn more effectively than they did in high school. Consequently, students will do well on assignments and tests. Since the author cannot know for certain the education students receive in college does not affect their academic performance. It is impossible to determine whether the interactive computer instruction is responsible the impressive achievements.
Finally, the author suggests that all schools in the district should adopt the same computer instruction system. This statement is unfounded. The author assumes what works in Nova High School will work in other schools too. The author did not consider the fact that each school is comprised of a unique student body. Students in other schools may come from various background with different ethnicity, and economic level. There are many factors that will affect the success of the computer instruction system. If, for example, a high school with mostly poor students who have not been exposed to advance technology, these students may have difficulties navigating and adapting to such innovative instruction. Since the author fails to provide relevant information to make a proper comparison between different high schools. It is impossible to determine whether the interactive computer instruction will work in other schools in the district.
In summary, the argument could be strengthened if the author had provided relevant information to help evaluate the relationship between the success of the program and the results he wishes to establish. At it stands, however, the argument is flawed for the reasons indicated.
Merely based on unfounded assumptions and weak correlations, the argument in the newspaper editorial draws the conclusion that school board should use available funds to buy more computers and all the schools in the district should follow the same practice. To support this conclusion, the author claims that immediately after one high school started using interactive computer instruction, drop out rates have gone down. The author further points out that last year’s graduates have done well in college because of exposure to the computer instruction. At first glance, the argument appears to be convincing. However, careful analysis reveals that the argument, in fact, suffers from several logical flaws.
First, the author infers an effect of the use of interactive instruction on the school’s drop out rate. This is a stretch; correlation does not equate causation. There could have been other unstated factors that cause a rapid decline in drop out rates among students. If, for example, at the time Nova High School introduced the interactive computer instruction, a local philanthropist started a scholarship for at-risk students. If those students promise to stay in school and go to college, the philanthropist would fund their tuition. Perhaps, in that instance, students who were likely to drop out of high school would stay. Since the author did not disclose any other factor that may have impact student’s decision to stay in school, it is impossible to determine whether the interactive computer instruction can be attributed to the sudden decline in drop out rate.
Secondly, the author assumes that the reason recent graduates are doing well in college is because they were exposed to the interactive computer instruction in high school. This argument is an oversimplification. It fails to consider the possibility that students may receive a better education or have much better teachers in college. If, for example, students meet renown college professors who are excellent teachers, students may learn more effectively than they did in high school. Consequently, students will do well on assignments and tests. Since the author cannot know for certain the education students receive in college does not affect their academic performance. It is impossible to determine whether the interactive computer instruction is responsible the impressive achievements.
Finally, the author suggests that all schools in the district should adopt the same computer instruction system. This statement is unfounded. The author assumes what works in Nova High School will work in other schools too. The author did not consider the fact that each school is comprised of a unique student body. Students in other schools may come from various background with different ethnicity, and economic level. There are many factors that will affect the success of the computer instruction system. If, for example, a high school with mostly poor students who have not been exposed to advance technology, these students may have difficulties navigating and adapting to such innovative instruction. Since the author fails to provide relevant information to make a proper comparison between different high schools. It is impossible to determine whether the interactive computer instruction will work in other schools in the district.
In summary, the argument could be strengthened if the author had provided relevant information to help evaluate the relationship between the success of the program and the results he wishes to establish. At it stands, however, the argument is flawed for the reasons indicated.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2018-12-07 at 11.35.45 PM.png [ 79.9 KiB | Viewed 1939 times ]
08 Dec 2018, 09:10
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Time: 27:40
Merely based on unfounded assumptions, the argument in the editorial section of a daily newspaper draws the conclusion that opinion polls are as effective at predicting election results as a random guess. To support this conclusion, the author states that many voters cannot make up their minds as to whom they will vote. The author further points out that some voters make their decision on site, at the voting booth. At first glance, the argument appears to be convincing. However, careful analysis reveals that the argument, in fact, suffers from several logical flaws.
First, the argument states that opinion polls are ineffective because current voter preferences do no reflect the election outcome. This statement is an oversimplification and uses vague language. It centers the argument around current voter preference without providing any information on when the voters respond to the polls. If, for example, polls were taken six months before the election. There is a high likelihood that candidates have engaged in many public debates on national television. As a result, voters may change their mind based on the results of the debates. If polls were taken again following the debates, the new polls might have a better prediction of the end results. Since, the author did not specify when the polls were taken, it is impossible to determine whether polls were truly effective in predicting the presidential election.
Finally, the author points out that because some voters do not make the final decisions until they enter the booth, the polls results should be disregard. This argument is unfounded and again consist of vague language. The author did not define the word “some”. If, for example, the word “some” means forty percent of the voters, perhaps the polls did not serve its purpose. However, if the word “some” means less than ten percent of the voters, then the number indecisive voters may be outliers of the poll takers. Since the author did not use precise language and fails to provide concrete data to support his argument, it is impossible to determine whether the polls is not successful at predicting the presidential election.
In summary, the author could have strengthened his argument by the use of more precise language and the use of numerical data with regard to the percentage of voters who change their mind. The author could also have provided the date of the opinion polls, the more recent the poll results, the better the accuracy. As it stands, however, the arguments are flawed for the reasons indicated.
Merely based on unfounded assumptions, the argument in the editorial section of a daily newspaper draws the conclusion that opinion polls are as effective at predicting election results as a random guess. To support this conclusion, the author states that many voters cannot make up their minds as to whom they will vote. The author further points out that some voters make their decision on site, at the voting booth. At first glance, the argument appears to be convincing. However, careful analysis reveals that the argument, in fact, suffers from several logical flaws.
First, the argument states that opinion polls are ineffective because current voter preferences do no reflect the election outcome. This statement is an oversimplification and uses vague language. It centers the argument around current voter preference without providing any information on when the voters respond to the polls. If, for example, polls were taken six months before the election. There is a high likelihood that candidates have engaged in many public debates on national television. As a result, voters may change their mind based on the results of the debates. If polls were taken again following the debates, the new polls might have a better prediction of the end results. Since, the author did not specify when the polls were taken, it is impossible to determine whether polls were truly effective in predicting the presidential election.
Finally, the author points out that because some voters do not make the final decisions until they enter the booth, the polls results should be disregard. This argument is unfounded and again consist of vague language. The author did not define the word “some”. If, for example, the word “some” means forty percent of the voters, perhaps the polls did not serve its purpose. However, if the word “some” means less than ten percent of the voters, then the number indecisive voters may be outliers of the poll takers. Since the author did not use precise language and fails to provide concrete data to support his argument, it is impossible to determine whether the polls is not successful at predicting the presidential election.
In summary, the author could have strengthened his argument by the use of more precise language and the use of numerical data with regard to the percentage of voters who change their mind. The author could also have provided the date of the opinion polls, the more recent the poll results, the better the accuracy. As it stands, however, the arguments are flawed for the reasons indicated.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2018-12-08 at 11.40.50 PM.png [ 77.28 KiB | Viewed 1948 times ]
