Some factors you need to consider are:
- Learning curve (i.e. your last application will be better than your first).
- Have time to adjust your strategy as you get results.
- Avoid round 3 (or 4 if the school has 4 rounds).
As you see, there are tradeoffs to be made. You don't want to apply to your dream school first, because your application will be probably be weaker than if you applied later, but at the same time you don't want to have to decline an offer from a backup without any positive answers from your first options.
A way that could work is:
- Apply to 2 - 4 schools in Round 1. Make those schools 2-3 backups and 1-2 reach schools, but apply to the reach schools last. Based on results, decide on your round 2 options or be done.
- Apply to 2-3 schools in Round 2. Try to apply to schools that make quick decisions (eg: Wharton or Chicago with their interview deadlines) so that you have a sense of your chances before the Round 1 acceptance deadlines.
That way, the following possible outcomes occur:
- You get into a reach school in R1 and take the offer.
- You get into a backup school in R1 and ask them for an extension/ take the offer or decline the offer only if hearing positive things from the R2 reach schools.
- You get nowhere in R1, then adjust down your expectations in R2 (adding more backups), but still apply to a couple of reach schools just in case R1 was only bad luck.
It's not an easy game to play and it can be nerve-wrecking at times, but in the end most people have a favorable outcome.
L.