I just attempted to write my first AWA essay. I was wondering if someone can give me an indication of my score (approximate range). I used the format provided by
chineseburned.
This was my assignment from the mock:
"The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counter examples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion."
My essay was as following:
The argument claims that due to the recent observed correlation between the age and demand for cola and coffee one should reallocate his investments to the company whose product will have a positive correlation with the population dynamics. Stated in this way argument misinterpret facts and conveys a distorted view of situation. Hence, argument is weak, unconvincing and has several flaws.
First, the argument readily assumes that positive correlation between the age and demand for coffee and negative correlation between the age and demand for cola will persist for the new cohort of population. In particular, results of the presented studies describe some relationship that is based on the specific group of surveyed people. Those surveyed people might have different tastes and attitude to the products like coffee and cola from the new generation that will be ageing in the coming years. Moreover, those people might have been reducing consumption of cola due to the fact that such product contains lots of sugar, while now there are different substitutes for this unhealthy ingredient. This in turn would not reduce demand for cola, but might retain it at the levels of consumption of the young surveyed individual. Argument could have been made more convincing if relevant outlook on the demands was provided based on the preferences of the population that is currently ageing.
Second, while author indicates that based on the recent studies about general trends over the life cycle of the individuals, he does not provide any statistics regarding general dynamics of all age groups. Therefore, author gives the reader distorted view on the situation. In particular, this argument does not consider the possibility that while number of older adults increase, the number of young adults increases even more. Latter would imply that, contrary to the statement, demand for cola would be higher than for coffee. Argument does not provide enough evidence to why an increase in the number of older adults will make coffee producing companies more successful than producers of cola drinks. Statement could have been strengthened if all the relevant statistics was presented to the reader to make well-reasoned investment decision.
Finally, the argument generalizes impact of trends on industries of specific drinks and applies conclusions from this general statistics on specific companies. Clearly, the fact that coffee will be more popular than cola does not imply that Cola Loca corporation will be less profitable investment than Early Bird Coffee. For example, Cola Loca might be monopolist in its market and therefore, lower demand will affect its earnings directly. On the other hand, Early Bird Coffee corporation might face rigorous competition and therefore, go out of business. Argument does not provide any substantiation to why specific company will perform better over the span of the next 20 years that the other one. To convince the reader of the specific investment author has to present relevant information on the future outlook regarding each company. Without such additional information, it may seem that the argument presents a leap of faith.
As it stands, however, the argument is flawed for the reasons indicated. It could have been strengthened if all the relevant information and facts were presented. In order to assess the merit of certain decision, it is essential to have full knowledge of all contributing factors. Without this information, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.