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19 Jun 2003, 02:31
Kudos
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The probability that a sleeper bomb will blow up in any given year is 5%.
If there is a sleeper bomb sitting in one of the canyons in the city of Monrovia what is the probability that it will blow up this year if it has been sitting there already for 10 years?
If there is a sleeper bomb sitting in one of the canyons in the city of Monrovia what is the probability that it will blow up this year if it has been sitting there already for 10 years?
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19 Jun 2003, 08:09
Kudos
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I don┬┤t understand the question, but if each year is independent to the other, I mean if each year has a 5% probability no matter how many years, then the prob is 5% like any other year (it seems too easy)
Can you explain the question
thanks
Can you explain the question
thanks
25 Jun 2003, 00:09
Kudos
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OK, my mistake. Let me rephrase the problem:
The probability that a sleeper bomb will blow up in any given year is 5%.
If there is a sleeper bomb sitting in one of the canyons in the city of Monrovia what is the probability that it will blow up this year if it has been sitting there already for 10 years and no sleeper bomb has ever lasted more than 20 years without blowing up?
P.S. I thought it would be clear from the 5% deal that it will last for 20 years, but it is not; I am sorry about that. Basically the life of the bomb is 20 years - it will for sure blow up at the end of that time.
The probability that a sleeper bomb will blow up in any given year is 5%.
If there is a sleeper bomb sitting in one of the canyons in the city of Monrovia what is the probability that it will blow up this year if it has been sitting there already for 10 years and no sleeper bomb has ever lasted more than 20 years without blowing up?
P.S. I thought it would be clear from the 5% deal that it will last for 20 years, but it is not; I am sorry about that. Basically the life of the bomb is 20 years - it will for sure blow up at the end of that time.
when I was coming up with the problem. I wonder if there is a case when probability would add up? Any ideas? 
