THREE days until the GMAT - confused about GMATPrep test scores

Question

I have my exam in three days and I am aiming for 750+. I've posted before about the scores I've gotten on the GMATPrep practice tests. It's been a while since my first attempt, so I took one again today to see if it'll be an accurate indicator of what I'll get in three days. (Due to a resetting of the questions, this test had a set of almost all new problems)

Compared to my previous attempt here is the breakdown that I'm struggling to interpret:
Previous attempt: Q48 V41, 720. (16 incorrect in Q, 10 incorrect in V)

Latest attempt: Q48 V41, 730. (8 incorrect in Q, 5 incorrect in V)

I made only half the number of mistakes as I did my previous attempt but my score is only 10 points higher. Also, my previous attempt, where I had 16 incorrect answers in Quant, I had many more "strings" of incorrect answers (ex. 3 or 4 questions wrong in a row), whereas this time I probably didn't go over 2 questions in a row incorrect. I know that the scoring algorithm is extremely complex, but how would you go about interpreting such a small (basically none) change in score when I've reduced my error count by half?

EMPOWERgmatRichC · Answer

Hi daysandhours,

Since you're so close to Test Day, you shouldn't be overanalyzing how the CAT algorithm works. Instead, a full review of this CAT is warranted. What "takeaways" are there about the questions that you got correct? Of the questions that you got incorrect, WHY did you get them incorrect (and COULD you have reasonably gotten any of them correct if you had done something differently?)?

Considering your score goal, you're in the right position to succeed. Don't try to overdo anything in these last couple of days. You'll be best served going into Test Day well-rested and ready to work hard.

GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich

IanStewart · Answer

Your score is based on the difficulty level of question you can answer correctly, and the difficulty level you cannot. It's not really based at all on the number of correct and incorrect answers. So it's most likely that on your first test, with more wrong answers, that you were mostly seeing very hard questions. You can afford to get a lot of wrong answers on the absolute hardest questions - that only proves you're not an 800-level test taker, but you might still be a 720-760 level test taker. On your second test, with few wrong answers, you likely were exposed to an easier question pool, and then each wrong answer hurt you more than on the previous test. That may happen by weird luck (question selection is determined by a few factors), and can often happen if your performance early in the test is worse than normal.

Either way, I wouldn't spend much time thinking about the algorithm. As you can see, the algorithm eventually converges to a similar score regardless of whether your performance early is great or poor, and regardless of how easy or hard the question pool is on average. The best thing to do on test day is not to think about the algorithm at all - just focus on the question in front of you, answer it to the best of your ability, and don't worry about it if you can't answer some questions. The GMAT is very forgiving of mistakes, especially on hard questions.

daysandhours · Answer

Hi IanStewart. I actually took my exam today and to my disappoint, scored a 680 with 7 IR, 44Q and 39V. This was my first attempt and there were a few never-seen type of quant questions, and even though on both my GMATPrep CATs I scored over 40 for verbal with time left over, I barely finished today's exam on time. What kind of advice do you give to students planning to retake the exam? I'm thinking about retaking in 4 or 5 weeks.

EMPOWERgmatRichC · Answer

Hi daysandhours,

First off, a 680/Q44 is a strong score (it's just shy of the 90th percentile overall), so this score could very well get you into a Business School of your choice. It's understandable why you would be a bit disappointed though. I have a few questions about how you took these CATs (relative to how you took the Official GMAT):

1) Did you take the FULL-CAT each time (including the Essay and IR sections)?
2) Did you take these CATs at the same time of day as your Official GMAT?

3) Did you take these CATs at home?
4) How long was the ride to the Test Center from your home?

GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich

daysandhours · Answer

Hello! To answer your questions, 
1) I took two of the practice CATs in full length (I scored 740 on my latest full length, but 720 with just Q and V, which I thought was strange because I probably felt more burned out after the essay+IR). I took a couple on MGMAT Quant-only my score ranged from 43-45. I felt that MGMAT practice questions were a lot harder than the ones from the Official Guide or GMATPrep software.

2) While I do not recall the exact time of day my CATs were taken, I know for sure they were around the same time. My GMAT appointment today was at 1 (though I did start half an hour early) and my CATs were taken anytime from 1pm to 3pm.

3) No, I took one of my CATs at a quiet library and the rest at a cafe. I know it's probably not the best idea to take an exam at a cafe but it didn't seem to make too much of a difference on these practices.

4) 20-25 minutes!

Would it be wise to schedule my second test right away? I'm thinking about scheduling it in about 5 weeks time, hoping to raise it to at least 700 but I've also heard that high 600's to low 700's is an enormous jump.

IanStewart · Answer

It sounds like your 'true level' is around 720-730 right now. There may be a reason you underperformed on test day - if you were tired, sick, stressed, hungry, or under or over-caffeinated, this may have caused you to perform slightly worse than normal. If any of those issues might have affected you, be sure to learn from them, and do your best to ensure they do not affect your performance on your next attempt.

But it's also the case that luck plays a small role in determining your score. There are two ways one can be 'unlucky' on the GMAT - most test takers need to guess at several questions, and on some days those guesses work out well, and on other days they work out badly. And then on some tests, the question types will play to your strengths, and on other tests they won't. The 'standard error' on the GMAT is a bit less than 30 points, which means if a test taker were to take the GMAT billions of times, and graphed his or her scores, those scores would be on a bell curve, with mean equal to the test taker's true level, and standard deviation a bit less than 30. This variation is due to luck alone, and it may just be that you were unlucky on test day - there may be no other explanation.

You'll be more comfortable with the test day experience the second time, and if you were unlucky this time, it's not likely you'll be unlucky again. If you took the test tomorrow, I'd be quite confident you'd score around the 720 mark, as long as your diagnostics are a fair reflection of your ability. So I don't think you should be concerned, and if you can improve at all over the next few weeks, you might even exceed that score on your next test. I don't think you have anything to gain by waiting more than a few weeks to take the test again.

EMPOWERgmatRichC · Answer

Hi daysandhours,

While you clearly want to retake the GMAT, the immediate issue is whether you really *need* to retake it or not.

What Schools are you planning to apply to? And when?
Are you going after any specific scholarships? Do you know what the 'requirements' are to apply for those scholarships?

Before you invest any additional time studying or additional money into the GMAT, you might want to discuss your overall profile and goals with an Admissions Expert. There's a Forum full of them here:

ask-admission-consultants-124/

GMAT assassins aren't born, they're made,
Rich

bb · Answer

Have you taken it yet? How did it go???

daysandhours · Answer

Yup, I did. And it didn't go that well

680 with 44 in Quant in 39 in Verbal, and I'm considering retaking it in June. (hopefully with a more strategic study plan)

sukanyar · Answer

Can you please elaborate on this. What do you exactly mean by "never-seen type of Quant questions".

Do you mean that these questions were "outside" the normally covered areas in Quant such as Ratio and Proportion, Percentage, Statistics, Probability, Permutations and Combinations, and Geometry. I am quite comfortable in Quant, but "never seen type of Quant questions" is a slight cause of concern.

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