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Bunuel
TIM: When a rare tragedy, such as a plane crash, occurs, many people profess a belief that they themselves are more likely to experience such a tragedy and take extraordinary measures to prevent it. This is unfounded, however. Winning a lottery jackpot, an extremely rare event, does not mean you are any more likely to win a second time.

SUSAN: I disagree. The belief is well founded. People who sense danger are more likely to trust their instincts and act in such a way as to prevent the danger from befalling them.

Susan’s attempt to counter Tim’s argument is best characterized as one that


A. makes apparent Tim’s failure to consider the consequences of such a tragedy to its survivors

B. challenges Tim’s assumption that the occurrence of a single event is sufficient to predict future occurrences of that event

C. questions the appropriateness of the analogy drawn by Tim

D. presents an alternate basis for judging the validity of people’s reactions

E. disputes the meaning of the term unfounded

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:



How’d you do? The question asks you to characterize the argument and is, therefore, a reasoning question—it’s more concerned with structure than content. As you break it down, take note of the way Susan fails to address Tim’s premise, but instead introduces her own reasoning. In this case, Tim describes behavior in response to a tragedy, and dismisses it as “unfounded” based on his lottery analogy. Susan provides an alternate explanation for people’s behavior. As you use Process of Elimination, ask yourself, “Did they do that?” as a way of testing each answer choice.

Here we go:

(A) No. Neither of them discusses the effect of tragedy on its survivors. Eliminate it.

(B) No. Susan does not even address Tim’s assumption about the frequency or likelihood of the recurrence of such an event in the future. Eliminate it.

(C) No. Susan does not speak about Tim’s analogy. Eliminate it.

(D) Yes. Susan presents another explanation for the behavior pointed out by Tim—that people are more likely to trust their instincts and possibly avert misfortune.

(E) No. There is no such dispute in Susan’s argument. Eliminate it
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