Official Solution:
Researchers examined notebooks and correspondence produced while scientists were developing new theories. They found that the theories later judged most original were generally developed by scientists who drew analogies from fields far removed from their own. Moreover, the greater the distance between a scientist’s field and the field from which an analogy was drawn, the more original the associated theory tended to be. The researchers therefore concluded that deliberately generating distant analogies tends to make scientists’ theories more original.
Which of the following statements, if true, most seriously weakens the researchers’ argument?
A. Creativity is commonly assessed by asking people to identify connections between ideas that initially appear unrelated.
B. Scientists who had produced the most original work before the projects examined began later used the most distant analogies during those projects.
C. Some highly original scientific theories were developed without any identifiable use of distant analogy.
D. Analogies drawn from more distant fields are less likely than closer analogies to preserve the underlying mechanisms of the phenomena being compared.
E. Even highly original scientific theories are unlikely to be accepted unless they receive substantial empirical support.
The researchers observe that scientists who used more distant analogies tended to produce more original theories. From this association, they conclude that deliberately generating distant analogies
causes scientists to produce more original theories.
Use of distant analogies → greater originality
To weaken the argument, we need evidence that casts doubt on this causal relationship. One important possibility is
reverse causation: perhaps distant analogies do not make scientists more creative. Instead, scientists who are already more creative may simply be more likely to recognize and use distant analogies.
Greater originality or creativity → use of more distant analogies
If this is true, the researchers may have mistaken an effect or indicator of creativity for its cause.
A. This statement says that creativity is commonly assessed by a person's ability to identify connections between apparently unrelated ideas. This is consistent with the researchers' observation that creativity and the use of distant analogies are associated. It does not show that generating distant analogies fails to cause greater originality and therefore does not weaken the argument.
B. CORRECT. This statement tells us that the scientists who had already produced the most original work
before the projects examined began were subsequently the scientists who used the most distant analogies. Thus, their greater originality existed before the observed use of distant analogies. This provides evidence for the reverse causal explanation: scientists may use distant analogies because they are already especially creative, rather than becoming more creative because they use distant analogies. Therefore, this statement seriously weakens the researchers' conclusion.
C. The researchers conclude only that generating distant analogies
tends to increase originality. They do not claim that distant analogies are necessary for every original scientific theory. Therefore, the fact that some highly original theories were developed without identifiable distant analogies does not seriously undermine the conclusion.
D. This statement concerns whether distant analogies accurately preserve the mechanisms of the phenomena being compared. However, the researchers' conclusion concerns the
originality of the resulting theories, not whether the analogies themselves are scientifically accurate. An imperfect analogy could still help generate an original theory. Thus, this statement does not directly weaken the claimed relationship between distant analogies and originality.
E. This statement concerns whether an original scientific theory will ultimately be accepted. The argument, however, concerns whether generating distant analogies makes a scientist's theory more original. A theory could become more original because of analogical thinking and still require substantial empirical evidence before being accepted. Therefore, this statement does not weaken the researchers' conclusion.
The argument makes a common causal reasoning error: it observes that two factors occur together and concludes that one causes the other.
A is associated with B → conclusion: A causes B
A strong weakening statement can show that the causal direction may instead run in the opposite direction:
B causes A
Here, the researchers infer that using distant analogies causes greater originality. Statement B suggests instead that greater preexisting originality leads scientists to use more distant analogies. This alternative explanation directly undermines the researchers' causal conclusion.
Answer: B