In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered

Question

In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered voters in the area to ask them which candidate they planned to vote for. Voters from a representative sample of genders, ages, races, and political affiliations were polled, and 53% of them said they would vote for incumbent Jana Reyes for mayor over any other candidate. Based on the poll results, the news company concluded that Reyes would win the mayoral race.

Each of the following, if true, could weaken the conclusion presented above except:

A. The news company conducted the poll by phone, mainly in the middle of the day over two weekdays.

B. This race has been a particularly tumultuous one in which public opinion has often turned very quickly.

C. In this town, any mayoral race in which the top candidate receives less than 55% of the vote will result in a runoff election.

D. In the past, polls given by the news organization that showed more than a 5% lead by a particular candidate have predicted the outcome of the race with a high degree of accuracy.

E. Due to an administrative error, Jana Reyes will be a write-in candidate on the ballot in the actual election.

Source:  McGraw-Hill's GMAT   (1-32)

skgmatclub2016 · Answer

I marked the answer as "B" but still not able to understand why OA is D.. isn't D strengthening the conclusion ?

JeevesAsk · Answer

This is an except question, therefore anything that will make the the conclusion more likely is the answer. Anything above 5% difference means that mayor will win. 53% -47%(2nd candidate) =6% difference, hence a likely victory based off the polls.

sayantanc2k · Answer

Well explained. Just to add: the difference is AT LEAST 6% assuming only 2 candidates get votes. If there are more, then the difference would be higher.

nks2611 · Answer

can anybody explain why its not A , i got stuck btw A&D and finally marked A 
expert please explain!

rohan2310 · Answer

Point taken, however why is A wrong? Are we to assume that the sample size of the voters polled is in question?

sayantanc2k · Answer

Not the sample size, but whether the sample is representative to take a conclusion is the point. It is possible that only a particular type of voters (e.g., housewives) are available for talking during the period when the phone calls are made.

Sajjad1994 · Answer

Official Explanation

This argument, like many arguments that rest upon a poll or survey, assumes that the sample being polled is representative of the whole with respect to what is being asked about. The answers that weaken the argument either bring up ways in which the survey was not representative, or they introduce mitigating factors that would call the survey’s validity into question. Answer  choice D  supports the conclusion of the survey because if Jana Reyes received 53% of the surveyed votes (and, according to the language of the survey, only one candidate could be chosen), then the most her nearest competitor could have received is 47%. That’s a spread of more than 5%, so this survey falls into the category that the news organization typically predicts correctly.

Answer: D

In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered

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In the week before a local election, a news company polled registered

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