The number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents in the city of Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. It is clear, therefore, that a resident of Meadowbrook is now significantly more likely to become a victim of violent crime than a resident of Parkdale is.The conclusion of the argument is the following:
It is clear, therefore, that a resident of Meadowbrook is now significantly more likely to become a victim of violent crime than a resident of Parkdale is.The support for the conclusion is the following:
The number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents in the city of Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent.One thing we might notice about the argument is that the evidence is about PERCENTAGE INCREASES in numbers of crimes per 1,000 residents whereas the conclusion is about THE CURRENT LIKELIHOOD of a resident becoming a victim of crime.
In other words, as we'll discuss in more detail in going through the choices, the argument has made a leap from increases over time to actual crime rates at the present time without effectively connecting the two.
The argument given is most vulnerable to the objection that it fails to considerThe question is a Logical Flaw question, and the correct answer will highlight something such that the argument is flawed because it fails to consider that.
A) how the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for ParkdaleNotice that the evidence in the argument is about "violent crimes per 1000 residents" and that the conclusion is about how "likely" a resident is to become a victim of crime.
Neither of those statistics is affected by how much the populations grew. After all, regardless of how much the population of a city grows, that fact does not change the number of crimes per resident since crimes per 1000 residents is a ratio of total crimes to total residents. That ratio would not be expected to have changed just because the population of a city changed. Rather, as the number of residents grew, we'd expect the number of crimes to grow at about the same rate.
In other words, the TOTAL number of crimes in a city would logically be affected by population growth, but the crimes PER RESIDENT would not.
So, that the argument does not consider the rates of population growth is not a flaw because the argument works without consideration of those rates.
Eliminate.
B) how concerned about becoming a victim of violent crime the residents of Meadowbrook are as compared to residents of ParkdaleThe argument is about actual numbers of crimes per 1000 residents and the likelihood that a person will be a victim of crime. Those statistic remain what they are regardless of how concerned people are about becoming victims of crime. In other words, even if residents of Meadowbrook are not as concerned as residents of Parkdale about crime, there still has been a larger increase in crime in Meadowbrook than in Parkdale.
So, the argument is not flawed because it doesn't consider how concerned people are about becoming victims of crime since it's not about concerns. It's about what's actually occurring.
Eliminate.
C) whether the types of violent crime that have increased in Meadowbrook over the past four years are as serious as those that have increased in ParkdaleThe argument is not about the effects of crime or how serious crimes are. It's solely about crimes per thousand residents and the likelihood that a resident will be a victim of crime.
So, while it doesn't consider seriousness of crimes, that it doesn't is not a flaw.
Eliminate.
D) the relative sizes of the populations of Parkdale and MeadowbrookAs we discussed in considering choice (A), the evidence in the argument is about "violent crimes per 1000 residents" and the conclusion is about how "likely" a resident is to become a victim of crime.
Neither of those statistics is affected by the size of the population. In other words, regardless of what the populations of the two cities are, the numbers of crimes "per 1000 residents" and the likelihood of a resident becoming a victim of crime have the same meaning. After all, regardless of how large the population of a city is, that fact does not change the number of crimes per resident or the likelihood of a resident being a victim of a crime, which are ratios of numbers of crimes to total population.
So, the argument doesn't have to consider the relative sizes of the populations of the two municipalities because the relative sizes don't affect what the argument is about.
Eliminate.
E) the violent-crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years agoThis choice is interesting.
As discussed in the analysis of the argument above, the argument makes a leap from evidence about percentage increases in crimes per 1000 residents over time to a conclusion about crime rates at the present time. The issue with using that evidence to support that conclusion is that there are no reference points to connect the two.
After all, information on a percentage increase in crime in a city doesn't tell us the city's current crime rate. After all, a city that started off with a low crime rate could have a huge percentage increase in crime and still have a low crime rate, and a city that started off with a high crime rate could have a small percentage increase in crime and still have a much higher crime rate than another city.
So, in this case, the fact that Meadowbrook experienced a much greater percentage increase in crime than Parkdale doesn't necessarily mean that Meadowbrook currently has a higher crime rate than Parkdale. After all, Meadowbrook's crime rate could have started at a much lower base.
In general, to effectively support a conclusion about current crime rates using information about percentage increases, an argument needs information about the starting rates, which this argument does not have.
So, this argument is flawed because it does not consider the starting violent crime rates in the two municipalities four years ago.
Keep.
Correct answer: E