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Physician: Heart disease generally affects men at an earlier age than it does women, who tend to experience heart disease after menopause. Both sexes have the hormones estrogen and testosterone, but when they are relatively young, men have ten times as much testosterone as women, and women abruptly lose estrogen after menopause. We can conclude, then, that testosterone tends to promote, and estrogen tends to inhibit, heart disease.

The physician's argument is questionable because it presumes which one of the following without providing sufficient justification?

The physician observes a pattern: men have more testosterone and get heart disease earlier; women lose estrogen after menopause and then tend to experience heart disease. From this, the physician concludes that testosterone promotes heart disease and estrogen inhibits it. The flaw is causal: the argument treats a hormonal correlation as evidence of hormonal causation.

A. Hormones are the primary factors that account for the differences in age-related heart disease risks between women and men.

This is too strong. The argument does not need to assume hormones are the primary factors; it only needs to assume that hormone levels have some causal influence on heart disease.

B. Estrogen and testosterone are the only hormones that promote or inhibit heart disease.

This is also too strong. The argument does not claim that no other hormones matter.

C. Men with high testosterone levels have a greater risk for heart disease than do postmenopausal women.

This is not required. The argument compares general timing patterns, not the risk levels of these two specific groups.

D. Because hormone levels are correlated with heart disease they influence heart disease.

This is correct. The physician moves from a correlation between hormone patterns and heart disease timing to the conclusion that the hormones cause or prevent heart disease. That causal step is not justified by the evidence given.

E. Hormone levels do not vary from person to person, especially among those of the same age and gender.

This is not required. The argument can allow individual variation and still try to make a general claim about hormonal effects.

Answer: (D)
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