Bunuel
In Clark County, recent legislation requires that all new homes built with a pool be equipped with door alarms that sound when any door leading to the pool area is opened. The state legislature claims that this will save lives because parents will be alerted when their children enter the pool area. However, many homeowner's associations have protested the new law. The homeowner's associations conclude that few lives will be saved because children are supervised in pool areas over ninety-five percent of the time by their parents.
Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the homeowner's associations' argument?
(A) Many parents have formal training in CPR to resuscitate children that have fallen into a pool and drowned.
(B) Since new homes with pools represent a small fraction of the homes in Clark County, the law will be rather narrow in scope.
(C) The cost of the new door alarms is not prohibitive for most new home buyers.
(D) Clark County has an excellent system of emergency medical technicians, all of whom are trained to resuscitate children that have fallen into pools and drowned.
(E) Most of the deaths that result from a child falling into a pool occur when parents are home with their child but not supervising the child's activities.
KAPLAN OFFICIAL EXPLANATION
The phrase "most seriously weaken" identifies this as a Weaken question. The stimulus says that the homeowner's associations are predicting the new door alarm legislation will not save lives because children are usually supervised by their parents.
Any prediction can be weakened by changing the conditions on which the prediction is based. In this case, look for any information that indicates children are not being supervised, or that the 5% of the time when children are not supervised is leading to deaths in the pools.
(E) matches the prediction and is correct. If it is true that most deaths resulting from a child falling into a pool occur when there is no parental supervision, then the alarms would be helpful in notifying parents and the argument is weakened.
(A) and (D) strengthen the argument. They both give reason to think that even if a drowning occurs in a pool, that there will be qualified people on hand to save the child – and therefore little reason for a door alarm.
(B) strengthens the argument. If the alarms are not widely installed, it's likely that few deaths would be prevented.
(C) is irrelevant. The cost of the door alarm is not a factor. The argument only discusses the ability of the alarms to save children's lives from drowning.
TAKEAWAY: Weaken a prediction with information that indicates the conditions on which the prediction is based may change.