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E
Be sure to select an answer first to save it in the Error Log before revealing the correct answer (OA)!
Difficulty:
15%
(low)
Question Stats:
83% (01:13) correct
17%
(01:19)
wrong
based on 228
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Cigarette smoking, which is widely accepted to be the leading cause of lung cancer, is less popular today than ever before. Therefore, we can expect the incidence of lung cancer to decline in the future.
Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the argument above?
(A) A major cigarette manufacturer will soon introduce a new type of cigarette pack that contains fewer cigarettes than its other types of packs.
(B) Cigarette smoking is gaining in popularity compared to cigar smoking, which is also known to cause lung cancer.
(C) People rarely develop lung cancer within a few years after they begin smoking cigarettes.
(D) The nation that leads the world in exporting tobacco used in cigarettes is expected to place limits on the amount of tobacco it exports.
(E) An increasing number of people are developing lung cancer as a result of causes other than cigarette smoking.
Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the argument above?
(A) A major cigarette manufacturer will soon introduce a new type of cigarette pack that contains fewer cigarettes than its other types of packs.
(B) Cigarette smoking is gaining in popularity compared to cigar smoking, which is also known to cause lung cancer.
(C) People rarely develop lung cancer within a few years after they begin smoking cigarettes.
(D) The nation that leads the world in exporting tobacco used in cigarettes is expected to place limits on the amount of tobacco it exports.
(E) An increasing number of people are developing lung cancer as a result of causes other than cigarette smoking.
05 Aug 2024, 03:58
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E. It suggests that even if cigarette smoking declines, lung cancer rates might not decline because other causes are leading to an increase in lung cancer incidence. Thus it directly weakens the statement.
05 Aug 2024, 20:22
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To solve this question, let us deploy IMS's four step technique.
STEP #1 -> IDENTIFY THE QUESTION TYPE
Let us read the question stem to identify the question type.
STEP #2 -> X-RAY THE ARGUMENT
In a weakening question, it is a must to x-ray the argument and deconstruct it. Let us therefore read the argument first and note the conclusion and the premise(s) soon after.
PREMISE: Cigarette smoking, which is widely accepted to be the leading cause of lung cancer, is less popular today than ever before.
STEP #3 -> FRAME A SHADOW ANSWER
To frame a shadow answer, we must know what the right answer should do. In this question, the correct answer must cast doubt on the conclusion.
SHADOW ANSWER: Any situation that, after having taken the premise into consideration, leads us to believe that the incidence of lung cancer may not necessarily decline in the future.
STEP #4 -> ELIMINATE INCORRECT OPTIONS
Options that do not match the shadow answer can be eliminated.
(A) A major cigarette manufacturer will soon introduce a new type of cigarette pack that contains fewer cigarettes than its other types of packs. | NOT A MATCH | If a new type of cigarette pack that contains fewer cigarettes than its other types of packs is soon to be introduced, we have a reason to believe that the pack containing fewer cigarettes is being introduced likely on account of cigarette smoking losing popularity. Remember that the author has argued that because cigarette smoking is less popular today than ever before, we can expect the incidence of lung cancer to decline in the future. So, in a way, this option complements the author's premise, but we are looking to weaken the argument. Let us also keep in mind that introducing such a type of cigarette pack does not tell us if the frequency of smoking will go up or down. | ELIMINATE
(B) Cigarette smoking is gaining in popularity compared to cigar smoking, which is also known to cause lung cancer. | NOT A MATCH | We already know that cigarette smoking, which is widely accepted to be the leading cause of lung cancer, is less popular today than ever before. So, even if it is gaining in popularity compared to cigar smoking, the author's argument continues to remain valid. The comparison with cigar smoking is irrelevant; it does not impact the argument in any way. | ELIMINATE
(C) People rarely develop lung cancer within a few years after they begin smoking cigarettes. | If people rarely develop lung cancer within a few years after they begin smoking cigarettes, we have a reason to believe that they may develop the disease after many years and no reason to believe that the incidence of lung cancer may not necessarily decline in the future. | ELIMINATE
(D) The nation that leads the world in exporting tobacco used in cigarettes is expected to place limits on the amount of tobacco it exports. | If the nation that leads the world in exporting tobacco used in cigarettes is actually expected to place limits on the amount of tobacco it exports, we have a valid reason to believe that this specific measure taken by the nation is likely on account of cigarette smoking losing popularity. The conclusion continues to remain valid. | ELIMINATE
(E) An increasing number of people are developing lung cancer as a result of causes other than cigarette smoking. | MATCHES THE SHADOW ANSWER | We are looking for an option that leads us to believe that the incidence of lung cancer may not necessarily decline in the future after having taken the premise into consideration. So, even though cigarette smoking, which is widely accepted to be the leading cause of lung cancer, is less popular today than ever before, the conclusion that we can expect the incidence of lung cancer to decline in the future is now invalidated precisely because an increasing number of people are developing lung cancer as a result of causes other than cigarette smoking. | MARK AND MOVE
Hence, (E) has to be the correct answer.
STEP #1 -> IDENTIFY THE QUESTION TYPE
Let us read the question stem to identify the question type.
Quote:
The stem indicates a weakening question.
STEP #2 -> X-RAY THE ARGUMENT
In a weakening question, it is a must to x-ray the argument and deconstruct it. Let us therefore read the argument first and note the conclusion and the premise(s) soon after.
Quote:
CONCLUSION: We can expect the incidence of lung cancer to decline in the future.
PREMISE: Cigarette smoking, which is widely accepted to be the leading cause of lung cancer, is less popular today than ever before.
STEP #3 -> FRAME A SHADOW ANSWER
To frame a shadow answer, we must know what the right answer should do. In this question, the correct answer must cast doubt on the conclusion.
SHADOW ANSWER: Any situation that, after having taken the premise into consideration, leads us to believe that the incidence of lung cancer may not necessarily decline in the future.
STEP #4 -> ELIMINATE INCORRECT OPTIONS
Options that do not match the shadow answer can be eliminated.
(A) A major cigarette manufacturer will soon introduce a new type of cigarette pack that contains fewer cigarettes than its other types of packs. | NOT A MATCH | If a new type of cigarette pack that contains fewer cigarettes than its other types of packs is soon to be introduced, we have a reason to believe that the pack containing fewer cigarettes is being introduced likely on account of cigarette smoking losing popularity. Remember that the author has argued that because cigarette smoking is less popular today than ever before, we can expect the incidence of lung cancer to decline in the future. So, in a way, this option complements the author's premise, but we are looking to weaken the argument. Let us also keep in mind that introducing such a type of cigarette pack does not tell us if the frequency of smoking will go up or down. | ELIMINATE
(B) Cigarette smoking is gaining in popularity compared to cigar smoking, which is also known to cause lung cancer. | NOT A MATCH | We already know that cigarette smoking, which is widely accepted to be the leading cause of lung cancer, is less popular today than ever before. So, even if it is gaining in popularity compared to cigar smoking, the author's argument continues to remain valid. The comparison with cigar smoking is irrelevant; it does not impact the argument in any way. | ELIMINATE
(C) People rarely develop lung cancer within a few years after they begin smoking cigarettes. | If people rarely develop lung cancer within a few years after they begin smoking cigarettes, we have a reason to believe that they may develop the disease after many years and no reason to believe that the incidence of lung cancer may not necessarily decline in the future. | ELIMINATE
(D) The nation that leads the world in exporting tobacco used in cigarettes is expected to place limits on the amount of tobacco it exports. | If the nation that leads the world in exporting tobacco used in cigarettes is actually expected to place limits on the amount of tobacco it exports, we have a valid reason to believe that this specific measure taken by the nation is likely on account of cigarette smoking losing popularity. The conclusion continues to remain valid. | ELIMINATE
(E) An increasing number of people are developing lung cancer as a result of causes other than cigarette smoking. | MATCHES THE SHADOW ANSWER | We are looking for an option that leads us to believe that the incidence of lung cancer may not necessarily decline in the future after having taken the premise into consideration. So, even though cigarette smoking, which is widely accepted to be the leading cause of lung cancer, is less popular today than ever before, the conclusion that we can expect the incidence of lung cancer to decline in the future is now invalidated precisely because an increasing number of people are developing lung cancer as a result of causes other than cigarette smoking. | MARK AND MOVE
Hence, (E) has to be the correct answer.
