Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population.

Question

Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population. A survey was done measuring traffic patterns during the summer months for each of the past 5 years. The survey found that, on average in Town Y, there were 28 minor car accidents in June as well as 28 in July. During the same two months in Town X, the average was only 14 minor car accidents each month. Thus, if the Dentco Autobody Repair franchise were looking to open a new shop in one of the two towns, it would be more likely to succeed in Town Y.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously damage the conclusion drawn in the passage?

A. More people walk to work or use mass transit in Town Y.

B. The state is planning to add a thruway exit for Town Y.

C. The traffic volume in Town Y quadruples in the summer because it is a beach town.

D. In June and July six years ago, Town X had double the amount of accidents than Y.

E. There are rumors of a megamall possibly being constructed in Town X.

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Kevi · Answer

A. Few people are driving and still more minor accidents than Town X. Repair shop will likely succeed. Supports the conclusion. 
B. More traffic means more accident. Supports the conclusion. 
D. Irrelevant 
E. Rumor means uncertainty, no.

C. The survey includes information about only summer months. Maybe in other months there are few accidents or even no accidents at all. Then it would weaken the conclusion that repair shop will likely succeed in Town Y.

C

Minka99 · Answer

I'm going with  C  here.
We are first provided the information that towns Y and Y are very similar in size and population, making them comparable. Then, we find out that in the months of June & July, Y had double the car accidents that X did. The conclusion here is that  if the car repair franchise were looking to open a new shop in one of the two towns, it would be more likely to succeed in Town Y.  The reason for this? Double the car accidents = double to work for the franchise. BUT, our job is to attack this conclusion, aka choose an answer that logically explains why this is a bad idea.
A) That's great but the statement that there have been double the car accidents in June and July still stands! Nothing here that explains this.
B) If anything, this would possibly strengthen the conclusion, not weaken
C) CORRECT Y is a beach town, i.e., there are a lot more people (tourists) that travel there and thus, the franchise for car repair would only have this increased workload during those Summer months. Since we don't know what the number of car accidents for Y is during the remaining months, there is no proof that the franchise would be more successful there than in town X
D) 6 years ago is just out of scope - not relevant today
E) a megamall would mean more people but we are not allowed to just assume that this would automatically lead to more car accidents.

SS990 · Answer

Given: X=Y in size and local population Accidents in X(14)< Accidents in Y(28) in June and July Conclusion: Y is better for Autobody repair business than X Assumption: Y has more buiness opp for a autonody repair business throught year To: Weaken Assumption to weaken conclusion A. More people walk to work or use mass transit in Town Y. - THis is not signify that number of people using and getting into accident in Y

Vivek1707 · Answer

A. Incorrect: Even with more people walking/transiting, Y still has twice as many accidents. Doesn't seriously undermine the conclusion.
B. Incorrect: A new highway exit could likely increase traffic and accidents in Y, if anything strengthening the conclusion.
C. Correct: This is the key. If Y's traffic quadruples during summer, the 28 accidents/month may simply be because there are 4× as many cars. That means Y's accident rate per vehicle could actually be lower than X's. The higher accident count doesn't necessarily mean more business opportunity.
D. Incorrect: That's six years ago. The current conclusion is based on the last five years, so the old data isn't very useful.
E. Incorrect: A rumor that a megamall might be built doesn't establish that traffic or accidents will actually increase in X.

UpHa · Answer

IMO C. It tell us that the accident per number of cars is lower in Town Y is lower than Town X. Surely a weakener.

officiisimpedit · Answer

I thought that adding a highway would lead to lower traffic and therefore fewer accidents, and chose B. Could somebody please explain why adding a highway necessarily increases the no. of accidents?

guddo · Answer

B does not say a new highway is being added. It says a new thruway exit will serve Town Y. That could make Town Y more accessible and could increase traffic there, but it does not necessarily increase accidents.

More importantly, B gives no clear reason why the repair shop would be less successful in Town Y. C directly shows that Town Y’s high accident numbers may be caused by a temporary summer traffic surge, so those numbers may not represent year-round demand. That is why C is much stronger.

Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population.

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Town X and Town Y are roughly equal in size and local population.