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Acc3ss
In 1983 Argonia’s currency, the argon, underwent a reduction in value relative to the
world’s strongest currencies. This reduction resulted in a significant increase in
Argonia’s exports over 1982 levels. In 1987 a similar reduction in the value of the
argon led to another increase in Argonia’s exports. Faced with the need to increase
exports yet again, Argonia’s finance minister has proposed another reduction in the
value of the argon.
Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the prediction that the finance
minister’s plan will not result in a significant increase in Argonia’s exports next year?



A. The value of the argon rose sharply last year against the world’s strongest
currencies.
B. In 1988 the argon lost a small amount of its value, and Aronian exports rose
slightly in 1989.
C. The value of Argonia’s exports was lower last year than it was the year before.
D. All of Argonia’s export products are made by factories that were operating at
full capacity last year, and new factories would take years to build.
E. Reductions in the value of the argon have almost always led to significant
reductions in the amount of goods and services that Argonians purchase from
abroad.

OA

I think this is an easy question - but again, maybe that is because I am an economist :)

A. Doesn't tell us anything about whether a decline in the argon will boost exports.
B. Offers weak support for the reverse of the claim that we are asked to support.
C. We don't know the value of the argon in "last year and the year before".
E. Tells us that a reduction in argon leads to decreased imports => irrelevant.

D. If all exporting companies are working at full capacity now and it will take years to increase this capacity, it's impossible to immediately increase exports. Hence this is the answer.

This certainly isn't a sub 600 question .. You explanation seems fine but we are provided data only till 1987. The need for another increase in export may be next year or may be after 100 years .. in that duration .. more factories may or may not have been built.. and thus the present industries may or may not be able to supply the increased exports ..

I hope ^^ makes sense ..

I guess a bit more elaborate explantion will do ..
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Acc3ss
andershv
Acc3ss
In 1983 Argonia’s currency, the argon, underwent a reduction in value relative to the
world’s strongest currencies. This reduction resulted in a significant increase in
Argonia’s exports over 1982 levels. In 1987 a similar reduction in the value of the
argon led to another increase in Argonia’s exports. Faced with the need to increase
exports yet again, Argonia’s finance minister has proposed another reduction in the
value of the argon.
Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the prediction that the finance
minister’s plan will not result in a significant increase in Argonia’s exports next year?



A. The value of the argon rose sharply last year against the world’s strongest
currencies.
B. In 1988 the argon lost a small amount of its value, and Aronian exports rose
slightly in 1989.
C. The value of Argonia’s exports was lower last year than it was the year before.
D. All of Argonia’s export products are made by factories that were operating at
full capacity last year, and new factories would take years to build.
E. Reductions in the value of the argon have almost always led to significant
reductions in the amount of goods and services that Argonians purchase from
abroad.

OA

I think this is an easy question - but again, maybe that is because I am an economist :)

A. Doesn't tell us anything about whether a decline in the argon will boost exports.
B. Offers weak support for the reverse of the claim that we are asked to support.
C. We don't know the value of the argon in "last year and the year before".
E. Tells us that a reduction in argon leads to decreased imports => irrelevant.

D. If all exporting companies are working at full capacity now and it will take years to increase this capacity, it's impossible to immediately increase exports. Hence this is the answer.

This certainly isn't a sub 600 question .. You explanation seems fine but we are provided data only till 1987. The need for another increase in export may be next year or may be after 100 years .. in that duration .. more factories may or may not have been built.. and thus the present industries may or may not be able to supply the increased exports ..

I hope ^^ makes sense ..

I guess a bit more elaborate explantion will do ..

I don't think that this is a sub-600 Q and I never stated so. I just said that I found it easy, which I should since I'm an economist.

Allow me to elaborate: In D we are told that the exporting factories are working at full capacity and it will take a couple of years to increase this capacity (by building new factories). This means that there is no way to increase exports in the forthcoming year. Since we are asked to find a claim which supports the notion that the finance ministers plan (to decrease the argon in order to boost exports) will not work, statement D fits the bill perfectly. Again, this is due to the fact that D states that there is no way to increase exports in the next year. Therefore the finance minister's plan will not increase exports.

I hope this helped. If not, please let me know.
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Wait I'm still confused. Aren't there cases where D is wrong? The passage doesn't say all productions in the past were exported. For example, it could be that the factory produced 100 units and went from exporting 50 to 75 due to the decrease in Argon. So with choice D, even if the factory can only produce not to its full capacity, lets say 80 instead of 100, if they exported just 50 last year, going from 50 to 70 is still an increase in export that could be caused by the decrease in Argon. So not being at the full capacity doesn't always pose limitations. Where am I thinking wrong?
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Wait I'm still confused. Aren't there cases where D is wrong? The passage doesn't say all productions in the past were exported. For example, it could be that the factory produced 100 units and went from exporting 50 to 75 due to the decrease in Argon. So with choice D, even if the factory can only produce not to its full capacity, lets say 80 instead of 100, if they exported just 50 last year, going from 50 to 70 is still an increase in export that could be caused by the decrease in Argon. So not being at the full capacity doesn't always pose limitations. Where am I thinking wrong?
Yes, your scenario is possible, so (D) does not prove that exports cannot increase. The factories could redirect some goods from domestic sales to exports.

But the question asks what most strongly supports the prediction. If all relevant factories are already at full capacity and new factories take years to build, Argonia cannot increase total production. Any export increase would have to come entirely from diverting existing output away from domestic buyers. That restriction makes a significant increase in exports less likely, even though it does not make one impossible.

So you are not thinking incorrectly. (D) is a strong weakener of the minister’s prediction, not a conclusive one.
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guddo

Yes, your scenario is possible, so (D) does not prove that exports cannot increase. The factories could redirect some goods from domestic sales to exports.

But the question asks what most strongly supports the prediction. If all relevant factories are already at full capacity and new factories take years to build, Argonia cannot increase total production. Any export increase would have to come entirely from diverting existing output away from domestic buyers. That restriction makes a significant increase in exports less likely, even though it does not make one impossible.

So you are not thinking incorrectly. (D) is a strong weakener of the minister’s prediction, not a conclusive one.

Hi! Thanks for the explanation. Can you correct where my logic is wrong for A? I know what happened in the past doesn't support anything for the future but my logic is the following: Lets say Argon was at 10 and it went to 8 and increased exports. In 1987, lets say argon was at 15 then went to 13 (same decrease by 2 since passage says lower by similar amount). If now, argon is at 100 and decreases by 2, it is only at 98. The decrease in currency is relatively small compared to 1982 and 1987. So exports may NOT SIGNIFCAITNYL increase. Doesn't this make sense?
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Hi! Thanks for the explanation. Can you correct where my logic is wrong for A? I know what happened in the past doesn't support anything for the future but my logic is the following: Lets say Argon was at 10 and it went to 8 and increased exports. In 1987, lets say argon was at 15 then went to 13 (same decrease by 2 since passage says lower by similar amount). If now, argon is at 100 and decreases by 2, it is only at 98. The decrease in currency is relatively small compared to 1982 and 1987. So exports may NOT SIGNIFCAITNYL increase. Doesn't this make sense?

I think the problem is the step where you assume the new reduction will be the same absolute amount as the earlier reductions.

(A) tells us only that the argon rose sharply last year. It tells us nothing about how large the finance minister's proposed reduction will be. So if the argon is now at 100, we cannot assume it will fall only to 98. It might fall to 80 or 70.

Therefore, (A) gives us no reason to think the new devaluation will be too small to significantly increase exports.

(D) is much stronger because it identifies an actual constraint. Factories are already at full capacity, so even if devaluation creates much greater foreign demand, Argonia cannot easily increase production to meet it.
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