Official Solution:
Urban Planner's Claim: The city plans to reduce traffic congestion by implementing a carpooling initiative that encourages drivers to share rides by offering tax incentives. The plan is based on the assumption that by reducing the number of single-occupancy vehicles on the roads, overall traffic volume will decrease.
Which of the following, if true, raises the most serious doubt regarding the effectiveness of the city's plan to decrease traffic congestion?
A. Many drivers prefer to travel alone due to the flexibility and privacy it offers, even when financial incentives are offered for carpooling.
B. The tax incentives provided for carpooling are structured to disproportionately benefit higher-income drivers, potentially leading to less participation among lower-income commuters.
C. Public transportation systems are likely to see an increase in use due to higher awareness of environmental issues, regardless of the carpooling initiative.
D. Most traffic congestion is due to commercial vehicles, which are not affected by carpooling incentives as they cannot realistically share vehicle space.
E. The tax incentives for carpooling will initially cost the city a significant amount in lost tax revenue, which could have been used for other traffic reduction measures.
Correct Answer: D. Most traffic congestion is due to commercial vehicles, which are not affected by carpooling incentives as they cannot realistically share vehicle space. This option casts serious doubt on the effectiveness of the carpooling initiative by highlighting that the major cause of traffic congestion (commercial vehicles) will not be addressed by the plan. If commercial vehicles are the primary contributors to congestion, then reducing the number of single-occupancy personal vehicles might have little impact on overall traffic levels.
A. Many drivers prefer to travel alone due to the flexibility and privacy it offers, even when financial incentives are offered for carpooling. This is a trap answer. It wants to make you feel and think that the plan will fail but it does not refute the potential effectiveness of the initiative to reduce congestion; it simply says that there is a barrier to participation which may or may not be serious enough. Perhaps even 10% fewer cars would be a meaningful change (we actually do not know what % should be reduced to be successful). This answer choice just says many drivers prefer - many is not most and could be a large minority but still a minority also prefer, does not mean they would not do it, they just don't prefer something. Most people don't prefer to fly Ryanair but they still fly with them. So while a shot in the right direction, this options has too many gaps and does not stand on its own. Eliminate for being too weak.
B: The tax incentives provided for carpooling are structured to disproportionately benefit higher-income drivers, potentially leading to less participation among lower-income commuters. This could be a problem if the majority of the population were lower-income commuters and if this meant they would not participate in the initiative. However, we lack information about the wealth and income of commuters to evaluate this argument. Irrelevant. Eliminate.
C. Public transportation systems are likely to see an increase in use due to higher awareness of environmental issues, regardless of the carpooling initiative. If many people start using public transportation system, this may actually result in less congestion but we do not know for sure. Regardless, the plan may still be effective in reducing the congestion, there may just be less congestion to reduce. Eliminate.
E. The tax incentives for carpooling will initially cost the city a significant amount in lost tax revenue, which could have been used for other traffic reduction measures. This choice questions the financial consideration of the plan but we are not concerned with the cost of this plan. Our goal is not ROI but effectiveness of the plan at reducing the congestion at whatever cost. GMAT CR is not a place where you play a consultant and think about how ROI will be low and therefore, this plan will get shut down in a few years. That's not our concern - we just want a very immediate answer - will it work or will something make it dead in the water right away.
Answer: D