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City Y has never hosted a major international sporting event. An analysis of the past five Olympic Games reveals that, without exception, each successful bid came from a city that had hosted at least one major sporting event within five years of its Olympic bid. Based on this observation, City Y’s bid committee believes it has very little chance of being selected to host the upcoming Games.
Which of the following best points out a flaw in the reasoning above?
A. It confuses the Olympic Committee’s selection criteria with the priorities of individual bid committees.
B. It incorrectly treats City Y’s lack of hosting experience as direct evidence that it will not be selected to host the Olympics.
C. It overlooks the mere possibility that City Y might still be selected even if it hasn’t hosted a major event before.
D. It relies on a similarity among previous outcomes without considering whether that similarity was essential to those outcomes.
E. It takes for granted that cities that haven’t hosted sporting events are automatically uninterested in doing so.
Which of the following best points out a flaw in the reasoning above?
A. It confuses the Olympic Committee’s selection criteria with the priorities of individual bid committees.
B. It incorrectly treats City Y’s lack of hosting experience as direct evidence that it will not be selected to host the Olympics.
C. It overlooks the mere possibility that City Y might still be selected even if it hasn’t hosted a major event before.
D. It relies on a similarity among previous outcomes without considering whether that similarity was essential to those outcomes.
E. It takes for granted that cities that haven’t hosted sporting events are automatically uninterested in doing so.
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Official Solution:
City Y has never hosted a major international sporting event. An analysis of the past five Olympic Games reveals that, without exception, each successful bid came from a city that had hosted at least one major sporting event within five years of its Olympic bid. Based on this observation, City Y’s bid committee believes it has very little chance of being selected to host the upcoming Games.
Which of the following best points out a flaw in the reasoning above?
A. It confuses the Olympic Committee’s selection criteria with the priorities of individual bid committees.
B. It incorrectly treats City Y’s lack of hosting experience as direct evidence that it will not be selected to host the Olympics.
C. It overlooks the mere possibility that City Y might still be selected even if it hasn’t hosted a major event before.
D. It relies on a similarity among previous outcomes without considering whether that similarity was essential to those outcomes.
E. It takes for granted that cities that haven’t hosted sporting events are automatically uninterested in doing so.
A. It confuses the Olympic Committee’s selection criteria with the priorities of individual bid committees.
- The argument is mostly concerned with City Y's assessment of its own chances. It neither addresses the decision-making process of the Olympic Committee nor does it discusses priorities of bid committees.
B. It incorrectly treats City Y’s lack of hosting experience as direct evidence that it will not be selected to host the Olympics.
- This is partly correct that City Y's lack of experience is taken into account to decide its probable selection, but the wording is too strong in this option. The argument never claims that City Y won't get selected under any circumstances but it only highlights that its chances would be too low.
C. It overlooks the mere possibility that City Y might still be selected even if it hasn’t hosted a major event before.
- The fact that something is possible doesn't explain why the given argument is flawed. This choice doesn't attack the committee's faulty inference and the argument never denies the possibility of City Y's selection instead it just concludes that the chances would be low.
D. It relies on a similarity among previous outcomes without considering whether that similarity was essential to those outcomes.
- This describes the core flaw in the argument. Based on the past selection, it generalizes the trend without concluding whether the two events were casually linked or merely correlated.
E. It takes for granted that cities that haven’t hosted sporting events are automatically uninterested in doing so.
- Argument never discusses City Y's interest in hosting sporting events, so this is, at best, a speculation and clearly out of scope for this discussion.
Answer: D
City Y has never hosted a major international sporting event. An analysis of the past five Olympic Games reveals that, without exception, each successful bid came from a city that had hosted at least one major sporting event within five years of its Olympic bid. Based on this observation, City Y’s bid committee believes it has very little chance of being selected to host the upcoming Games.
Which of the following best points out a flaw in the reasoning above?
A. It confuses the Olympic Committee’s selection criteria with the priorities of individual bid committees.
B. It incorrectly treats City Y’s lack of hosting experience as direct evidence that it will not be selected to host the Olympics.
C. It overlooks the mere possibility that City Y might still be selected even if it hasn’t hosted a major event before.
D. It relies on a similarity among previous outcomes without considering whether that similarity was essential to those outcomes.
E. It takes for granted that cities that haven’t hosted sporting events are automatically uninterested in doing so.
A. It confuses the Olympic Committee’s selection criteria with the priorities of individual bid committees.
- The argument is mostly concerned with City Y's assessment of its own chances. It neither addresses the decision-making process of the Olympic Committee nor does it discusses priorities of bid committees.
B. It incorrectly treats City Y’s lack of hosting experience as direct evidence that it will not be selected to host the Olympics.
- This is partly correct that City Y's lack of experience is taken into account to decide its probable selection, but the wording is too strong in this option. The argument never claims that City Y won't get selected under any circumstances but it only highlights that its chances would be too low.
C. It overlooks the mere possibility that City Y might still be selected even if it hasn’t hosted a major event before.
- The fact that something is possible doesn't explain why the given argument is flawed. This choice doesn't attack the committee's faulty inference and the argument never denies the possibility of City Y's selection instead it just concludes that the chances would be low.
D. It relies on a similarity among previous outcomes without considering whether that similarity was essential to those outcomes.
- This describes the core flaw in the argument. Based on the past selection, it generalizes the trend without concluding whether the two events were casually linked or merely correlated.
E. It takes for granted that cities that haven’t hosted sporting events are automatically uninterested in doing so.
- Argument never discusses City Y's interest in hosting sporting events, so this is, at best, a speculation and clearly out of scope for this discussion.
Answer: D
