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Policy analyst: In medical records, the number of items indicating that patients had died as a result of tobacco use was higher this decade than it had been in previous decades. Regions that produce tobacco reported the end of agricultural shortages at the beginning of this decade, so it is likely that the rising number of fatalities can be attributed to an increase in the supply of tobacco products.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously undermines the policy analyst’s argument?

Before you read the answer choices, find the conclusion and prephrase the answer.
Conclusion of the argument: "it is likely that the rising number of fatalities can be attributed to an increase in the supply of tobacco products".

A Every incidence of tobaccorelated hospitalization this decade was indicated in medical records. (does not weaken the conclusion)

B The average length of agricultural shortages has been consistently decreasing over the last decade in the regions of tobacco production. (does not weaken the conclusion. It actually seems to strengthen the conclusion.). Maybe those who marked it thought that Increase in supply ≠ decreased agricultural shortages... actually a decrease in shortage = increase

C Medical records have always been accessible and entirely legible. (does not weaken the conclusion)

D Patients suffering from side effects of tobacco use may also suffer from other, unrelated ailments. (does not weaken the conclusion)

E A malpractice lawsuit two years ago has spurred medical institutions to dedicate increased resources to documenting the causes of patient mortality more carefully. Weakens the conclusion. It presents an alternative explanation to the rising number of fatalities.
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Pre-thinking: how can I prove that tobacco is not the reason behind the increased number of deaths?

A Every incidence of tobacco related hospitalization this decade was indicated in medical records.
Does not add new fact

B The average length of agricultural shortages has been consistently decreasing over the last decade in the regions of tobacco production.
Does not add new fact

C Medical records have always been accessible and entirely legible.
Out of context

D Patients suffering from side effects of tobacco use may also suffer from other, unrelated ailments.
Out of context

E A malpractice lawsuit two years ago has spurred medical institutions to dedicate increased resources to documenting the causes of patient mortality more carefully.
This explains why the death rate is higher this decade compared to the previous decade. Therefore, it undermines the argument that tobacco is the culprit.
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OFFICIAL EXPLANATION

Since we want to "undermine" the argument, we don't want anything that is either unrelated to or helps the argument, which is that the end of the agricultural shortage has increased tobacco availability and, thus, increased fatalities. With that in mind, we look at our answer choices.

If medical records are entirely reliable and have been for the whole decade, then (A) can't hurt the argument. Choice (B)'s information about the trends of agricultural shortages doesn't help us hurt the analyst's argument, so that's not it.
Choice (C) is only relevant to the analyst's data, not the conclusion, and (D) is something that should be in the medical records, but (more importantly) doesn't hurt the conclusion either. If, however, as (E) tells us, medical institutions recently started taking more care to document causes of death, then that is another reason why there are more documented cases of tobacco-related deaths—which undercuts the analyst's argument.

The correct answer is Choice (E).
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