Tony: I play the Big Bucks lottery - that is thee one where you pick

Question

Tony: I play the Big Bucks lottery - that is thee one where you pick five numbers and all the players who have picked five numbers drawn at the end of the week share the money pot. But it's best to play only after there have been a few weeks with no winnders, because the money pot increases each week that there is no winner.

Baggs: No, you are more likely to win the lottery when the money pot is small, because that's when the fewest other people are playing.

Which one of the following most accurately describes a mistake in the reasoning of one of the two players?

A. Tony holds that the chances of anyone's winning are unaffected by the number of times that person plays.

B. Baggs holds that the chances of tony's winning are affected by the number of other people playing.

C. Tony holds that the chances of anyone's winning are unaffected by the size of the pot.

D. Baggs holds that the chances of Tony's winning in a given week are unaffected by whether anyone has won the week before.

E. Tony holds that the chances of there being a winner go up if no one has won the lottery for quite a while.

RishS94 · Answer

Winning Big bucks lottery is purely dependent on Numbers in the lottery.

Let's say there are 100 numbers >>So win probability is 1%

This is independent of the number of players involved. So B

RahulKumarSinha · Answer

KarishmaB  plz explain why option E is wrong ?

Aarti0701 · Answer

I am still confused between B and C , because when no. of ppl increases, chance of winning lottery decreases (because probability of selection of Tony= 1/N), so B should not be wrong, while Tony doesn't comment on chances of winning as he might think it is unaffected by size of pot, which is wrong. Can someone please comment, is there any point which i am missing?

siddhantvarma · Answer

Tony's Argument : Best to play after a few weeks with no winners => pot grows each week without a winner. Implicit in his reasoning might be the idea that with a bigger pot, it’s more worthwhile to play, even though he doesn’t explicitly mention an increased chance of winning. Baggs's Argument : You’re more likely to win when the pot is small because fewer people are playing. His reasoning suggests that the fewer people who play, the better his chances of winning, though mathematically, his probability of picking the winning numbers remains the same regardless of the number of participants. @ Aarti0701 You need to read the first few lines of Tony's argument very carefully and understand how the lottery is structured. In a lottery like Big Bucks, the outcome depends on the specific combination of numbers that a player selects. Let’s assume the lottery has 5 numbers that must be chosen from a set of, say, 50 possible numbers. The probability of any single player selecting the exact winning combination depends solely on: The total number of possible combinations. The particular combination they choose. For example, if the lottery has numbers between 1-100 and I need to select 5 numbers, my probability of winning the lottery depends only on the numbers I select. This is actually how most lotteries work. You pick a number from a given set of numbers and whoever gets that number wins. If you can spot that Bagg's argument is flawed because it takes into account the number of people playing, then selecting the correct answer choice from this point will be cakewalk. (A) Tony holds that the chances of anyone's winning are unaffected by the number of times that person plays. Irrelevant, Tony says nothing about the number of times a person plays. (B) Baggs holds that the chances of Tony's winning are affected by the number of other people playing. This statement is true, aligns well with our pre-thinking. Baggs suggests Tony’s chances improve when fewer people play. This reflects Baggs's assumption, which is a flaw in reasoning because Tony’s odds of picking the winning combination are independent of the number of players. (C) Tony holds that the chances of anyone's winning are unaffected by the size of the pot. Tony does not discuss the probability of winning in relation to the size of the pot; he only mentions that he prefers to play when the pot is larger so the lottery is more rewarding. Eliminate C. (D) Baggs holds that the chances of Tony's winning in a given week are unaffected by whether anyone has won the week before. Baggs’s statement does not involve the outcome of the previous week affecting Tony's current chances. His focus is only on the number of players each week. Eliminate D. (E) Tony holds that the chances of there being a winner go up if no one has won the lottery for quite a while. @ RahulKumarSinha Tony never implies that the probability of a win increases over time; he only says that the pot increases with no winners. This does not represent Tony's reasoning correctly. Hence we can rule out E. Hope this helps!

Aarti0701 · Answer

Thanks  siddhantvarma  , that cleared my doubt!! I did miss important line..

Tony: I play the Big Bucks lottery - that is thee one where you pick

Prep Toolkit

Top 5 GMAT Debrief Videos

615 to 715 in 15 Days (Ria's Strategies)

More than Quant/Verbal Abilities: Speed vs. Accuracy

745 with Only Self-Prep and GMAT Club

From 555 to 765: 210-point Improvement

Perfect 805 Score Debrief by Julia

My Rewards

GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR) Questions

Tony: I play the Big Bucks lottery - that is thee one where you pick

Prep Toolkit

615 to 715 in 15 Days (Ria's Strategies)

More than Quant/Verbal Abilities: Speed vs. Accuracy

745 with Only Self-Prep and GMAT Club

From 555 to 765: 210-point Improvement

Perfect 805 Score Debrief by Julia

My Rewards