In a study, researchers repeatedly measured the thickness of a specific artery in each of thousands of volunteers over several years. The researchers found during the study that the artery became thicker more quickly in individuals who lived in cities with significant air pollution. Since thick arterial walls are associated with heart disease, the researchers concluded that exposure to significant urban air pollution contributes to heart disease. The researchers conclude the following:
exposure to significant urban air pollution contributes to heart diseaseThe support for that conclusion is the following:
the artery became thicker more quickly in individuals who lived in cities with significant air pollutionand
thick arterial walls are associated with heart diseaseWe see that the researchers have reasoned that, since something associated with heart disease, "thick arterial walls," is correlated with urban air pollution, urban air pollution contributes to heart disease.
Simply put, the researcher have used a correlation between two events as support for the conclusion that one causes the other.
In order to assess the force of the researchers' evidence for their conclusion, it would be most helpful to know whetherThis question is an Evaluate question. So, the correct answer will present a question such that different answers to that question will weaken or strengthen the support for the conclusion provided by the evidence.
A) any of the volunteers whose arteries became thicker during the study lived in areas without urban air pollutionThe evidence that supports the conclusion is a general pattern: "the artery
became thicker more quickly in individuals who lived in cities with significant air pollution."
Notice that the evidence is not that the artery simply became thicker. It's that it "became thicker more quickly" in individuals in cities with significant air pollution.
Thus, even if some of the volunteers whose arteries became thicker lived in areas without urban air pollution, it would still be true that the artery became thicker
more quickly in individuals who lived in areas with air pollution.
So, a yes answer to the question presented by this choice does not weaken the support provided by the evidence.
On the other hand, a no answer to this question could seem to strengthen the argument. After all, if none of the volunteers whose arteries became thicker lived in areas without urban air pollution, then we have more reason to believe that urban air pollution causes thickening of arteries.
So, since at least a no answer to the question presented by this choice seems to affect the strength of the argument, let's keep this choice and see whether any other choice is better.
B) the specific artery the researchers examined is fairly typical of arteries in the human body with respect to the thickness of its wallsNeither a yes nor a no answer to the question presented by this choice affects the strength of the argument.
After all, the support for the conclusion isn't that the specific artery the researchers examined is thicker than other arteries. It's that
the artery's thickness increased faster in people living in areas with air pollution.
In other words, the evidence doesn't involve simply the thickness of the artery. It involves a change in the thickness, and that change would have the same support for the conclusion regardless of how that artery compares with other arteries.
Eliminate.
C) any factors that are more common in urban areas contribute to heart disease without contributing to the thickening of arterial wallsNotice that the conclusion is not that "urban areas" contribute to heart disease. It's that "exposure to significant urban air pollution contributes to heart disease."
So, whether other factors common in urban areas contribute to heart disease in other ways is irrelevant.
Another way of seeing that this choice is wrong is that the conclusion is based on the fact that thickening of arterial walls is
one path or factor associated with to heart disease. That reasoning doesn't depend on it being the case that thickening of arterial walls is the
only thing that results in heart disease. There could be other factors that cause heart disease in other ways and that fact would not change the fact that one path to heart disease is thickening of arteries.
So, neither a yes answer nor a no answer to the question presented by this choice has any effect on the force of the evidence.
Eliminate.
D) any of the volunteers whose arteries were among the thickest at the end of the study had arteries that were among the thickest when the study beganThe answer to the question presented by this choice has no effect on the force of the evidence. After all, the evidence involves the fact that the arteries became
thicker than they were before, not the fact that they were simply thick.
So. regardless of whose were the thickest, as long as arteries became thicker more quickly in those who lived in areas with air pollution, the argument still works.
Eliminate.
E) any other environmental factors tend, in cities with significant amounts of air pollution, to act to thicken arterial walls more quickly than they do in cities with lower amounts of air pollutionThe answer to the question presented by this choice makes or breaks the force of the evidence that supports the conclusion.
After all, if the answer is "Yes" and there are other factors that act to thicken arterial walls in cities with air pollution, then the correlation between air pollution artery thickening doesn't support the conclusion as well as it would otherwise.
After all, it could be that those other factors, which are correlated with both air pollution and thickening, are actually causing the thickening, rather than the pollution. In other words, some other factor could be causing the thickening, and the pollution could just happen to be present at the same time but not causing the thickening.
On the other hand, if the answer to the question presented by this choice is "No," then we have confirmation that there is not some other factor causing the thickening. So, in that case, we can be more confident that pollution causes the thickening, and in that case, the support provided by the evidence is strong.
So, this choice is looking great.
The only issue is that a no answer to (A) seems to strengthen the argument as well. So, which choice is correct, (A) or (E)?
Here's the thing.
We are not looking for a choice that simply strengthens the case for the conclusion. The question stem asks for information that can be used "to assess
the force of the researchers' evidence for their conclusion."
So, we can roll with (E) rather than (A) because of the following difference.
A no answer to the question presented by (A) adds some
new evidence in support of the conclusion. On the other hand, (E) helps to confirm whether the evidence we already have supports the conclusion.
Simply put, (A) is more about new evidence whereas (E) is about the force of the researchers' evidence.
Correct answer: E