The city is threatened by an impending tropical storm, which is expect

Question

Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

The city is threatened by an impending tropical storm, which is expected to raise the water outside the city to levels approaching the height of the protective barrier along the coast. Three teams of engineers and oceanographers have independently predicted the maximum water level will reach 89%, 83%, and 88% of the height of the protective barrier. The city is sufficiently safe, provided that _______________.

A. we take additional, sufficient steps to safeguard the city

B. the uncertainty of the predictions is sufficiently small relative to the difference between the predicted water level and the barrier's height

C. no additional independent prediction yields a value of 95% or higher

D. the three teams of engineers and oceanographers have based their predictions on similar assumptions

E. the three teams of engineers and oceanographers have based their predictions on dissimilar assumptions

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Scholar94 · Answer

Answer: B

First note that this is a weakening question in disguise. And the conlcusion of the argument is that the city is sufficiently safe

1. Option A is irrelevant to tell otherwise that tye city is not safe.
2. B: Here let's take the prediction of 89% for example, a higher uncertainty of the prediction in relation to the predicted water level and height will give us reason to doubt the conclusion that our city is safe.

3. C. Irrelevant

4. D &E; similarity or dissimilarity in the assumptions of the e engineers will have no impact on the conclusion. What matters to us is , can we sufficiently rely on the prediction

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kanikaa9 · Answer

Confused b/w D and B. Chose D as the conclusion is based on the 3 predictions and if those were of similar assumptions, then we might be safe as the water level will not rise. Although I am still skeptical that B could be an answer too.

Edit 2: Now I think it's B.

Edit 2: Now I think it's B.

Shwarma · Answer

Option B

A sentence that says the city will be safe ( but needs to be based on the previous premise)

A.Generic
C. we don't know if 95% is the max limit
D. so what it was on similar assumptions... does that make us safe...?
E. the opposite of other the implication can't be determined

So, B

Bunuel · Answer

OFFICIAL EXPLANATION:

Reading the question: since we must make a logical continuation, we try to predict the answer. The only prediction that springs to mind is a simplistic one: "The city is sufficiently safe, provided that their predictions are correct." That is our predicted answer about their predictions about the storm. Even a simple or obvious prediction can be used as a basic relevance filter.

Applying the filter: choices (B) through (E) are all relevant to the basic question of the correctness of the prediction. One is objectively best, while the rest are objectively not best. (B) seems best, so we can attempt to establish logical proof for (B).

Logical proof: we can confirm answer choice (B) by analysis by cases. Imagine that each team gave a certainty of plus or minus 50% the height of the wall. In that case, the city is not sufficiently safe. On the other hand, if the certainty is plus or minus 1%, the city is safe. Choice (B) must be right. Similar analysis of choices (C), (D), and (E) shows that they are not material to the argument in such a way.

The correct answer is (B).

The city is threatened by an impending tropical storm, which is expect

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The city is threatened by an impending tropical storm, which is expect

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