The Formula Has Two Parts:Probability of exact k successes = C(N,k) × P(success)^k × P(failure)^(N-k)Part 1: Probability of ONE specific sequenceLet's say we want EXACTLY the sequence: H H H T T T (heads first, then tails)
Since each coin toss is
independent:
P(H H H T T T) = (1/2) × (1/2) × (1/2) × (1/2) × (1/2) × (1/2) = (1/2)^6
In general, for ANY specific sequence with k heads and (N-k) tails:
P(one specific sequence) =
P(H)^k × P(T)^(N-k)Part 2: Count HOW MANY such sequences existBut wait. H H H T T T is not the ONLY way to get 3 heads and 3 tails!
We could also get:
- H T H T H T
- T H T H T H
- H H T T H T
- ...and many more!
How many arrangements give us exactly 3 heads among 6 tosses?This is like asking: "In how many ways can we choose
3 positions (out of 6) to place the heads?"
Answer: C(6,3) =
20 different sequences
Putting It Together:- Each of these
20 sequences has the same probability: (1/2)^6
- These sequences are
mutually exclusive (can't happen at the same time)
- So we ADD their probabilities: 20 × (1/2)^6 = 20/64 =
5/16General Principle:The formula = (Number of favorable arrangements) × (Probability of each arrangement)
= C(N,k) × P(success)^k × P(failure)^(N-k)
Simple Example:Flip a coin
3 times. Probability of exactly
2 heads?
Step 1: One specific sequence like HHT has probability = (1/2)^3 = 1/8
Step 2: How many ways to arrange 2 H's in 3 spots? C(3,2) =
3 ways (HHT, HTH, THH)
Step 3: Answer = 3 × (1/8) =
3/8Answer: C (5/16)hellothere88
Can you explain how is formula of probability of exact occurance derived?
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