Deconstructing the Question40% of the teenagers took a
driver’s education course.
All of them passed.
70% of all teenagers passed the test.
We must find the percent of those
who did not take the course who failed.
Step-by-stepAssume
100 teenagers.
Course group:
\(40\)
No-course group:
\(60\)
All course students passed:
\(40\)
Total passing:
\(70\)
Passing without course:
\(70 - 40 = 30\)
Failing without course:
\(60 - 30 = 30\)
Percent failing among no-course group:
\(\frac{30}{60} = \frac{1}{2} = 50\%\)
Answer: 50%We can solve this also using BayesDeconstructing the QuestionLet
C = took the course,
N = did not take the course.
Let
P = pass,
F = fail.
We need \(P(F \mid N)\).
All course-takers passed, so \(P(P \mid C)=1\).
Step-by-stepGiven:
\(P(C)=0.40\)
\(P(N)=0.60\)
\(P(P)=0.70\)
\(P(F)=0.30\)
\(P(P \mid C)=1\)
Compute:
\(P(P \cap C)=P(C)\cdot P(P \mid C)=0.40 \cdot 1 = 0.40\)
Pass without course:
\(P(P \cap N)=P(P)-P(P \cap C)=0.70-0.40=0.30\)
Fail without course:
\(P(F \cap N)=P(N)-P(P \cap N)=0.60-0.30=0.30\)
Conditional probability:
\(P(F \mid N)=\frac{P(F \cap N)}{P(N)}=\frac{0.30}{0.60}=0.50=50\%\)
Answer: 50%