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The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods:
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its 25th birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”
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The author claims that the Olympic Food’s long experience will help the company figure out how to minimize costs and hence maximize profits. In support of this conclusion, he states an unconvincing statement and corroborates it by alluding to a phenomenon in color film processing industry from 1970 to 1984 and infers that this phenomenon will also occur in food processing. Stated in this way, the author fails to mention a number of essential factors, on the basis of which his argument could be evaluated. Since the conclusion of the argument is based on presuppositions for which there is no persuasive evidence, the argument is inconclusive and has several flaws.
The primary issue with the author’s reasoning lies in his an unsubstantiated premise. He applies a principle, the decline in costs and day service of the color film processing over time, to the processing food without providing any evidence to buttress his reasoning. Undoubtedly, differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly invalid. For instance, problems of spoilage, contamination, and time transportation are crucial factors that do affect food industry but do have no bearing on film processing industry. Such problems may hinder food processing companies from meeting their goal of cutting cost. Since the author’s premise, the basis of his argument, lacks any legitimate evidential support, his conclusion is unacceptable.
In addition, the author makes an assumption that remains unproven. Assuming that long experience will help Olympic Food learn to do things better, the author states people can expect the company to be able to minimize costs and maximize profits. However this is not necessarily true. What if although the company has learn a lot through experiences, these experiences is not useful enough to help them operate more efficient. Because the author fails to provide explication of the links between the long experience of the company and advantages deriving from the experience, he weakens his argument by himself.
While the author does have several key issues in his argument’s premises and assumptions, it is not necessary to conclude that the entire argument is without base. In order to apply the abovementioned principle to the processing food, the author should provide some evidence to illustrate how similar the food processing and color film processing. What is more, if he can shed light on the advantages the company has receives from its experience, his assumption will apparent and explicit.
In sum, the author's illogical argument is based on unsupported premises and unsubstantiated assumptions that render his conclusion invalid.
If the author truly hopes to change his readers' minds on the issue, he would have to largely restructure his argument, fix the flaws in his logic, clearly explicate his assumptions, and provide evidential support. Without these things, his poorly reasoned argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.