Hi all
I would appreciate your assessment of my AWA. Thank you
“Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.The argument states that Olympic Foods, which will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, can expect that its long experience will enable it to minimize costs and thus maximize profits. This conclusion is based on the premise that over time organizations learn how to do things better, hence they become more efficient. The argument also relies on the idea that just as, in color film processing, the cost of a 3-by-5 inch print fell over a fourteen year period, so too will the cost of processing of food at Olympic Foods.
Stated in this manner, the argument is weak and reveals examples of leap of faith and poor reasoning. The argument also fails to mention several key factors based on which it could be evaluated. The conclusion of the argument relies on assumptions for which there is no clear evidence. Hence, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws.
The first issue to be addressed is whether increased efficiency will lead to lowering of production costs. This may not always be the case. For example, in the last four decades, even though electronic chip manufacturing industry has benefited from increased efficiency, it has not experienced a commensurate lowering of production costs because of a corresponding increase in the price of raw materials that are required for chip manufacturing. This goes to show that increased efficiency will lead to lowering of production costs only as long as the prices of raw materials don’t increase substantially. Had the author stated that the cost of raw materials that are used by Olympic Foods have remained unchanged over the time period in question, then would have been easier to conclude that increase in efficiency will lead to lowering of production costs.
The argument also relies on the idea that twenty-five years is a time period that is long enough for the phenomenon in question to be applicable. This is clearly an unfounded claim. Even though in the case of color film processing a fourteen year period may be a long enough time to allow for increase in efficiency, this may not necessarily be the case for all organizations. For another organization such as Olympic Foods, which falls under the food processing industry, it may be the case that improvements in efficiency are slow to come about, hence terming twenty-five years as a long enough time lacks any clear evidence. Had the author quantified what the term “long experience” means for the food processing industry, then validating the argument’s conclusion would have been much simpler.
In conclusion, while at first it may appear justified to contend that Olympic Foods can expect that its long experience will enable it to minimize costs and thus maximize profits, a careful analysis reveals that this may not necessarily be the case. Furthermore, increased efficiency may not always lead to minimization of cost and thus maximization of profits.