Please score my argument and suggest where should I improve.
The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.
"The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The recommendation by a budget planning committee for the city of Calatrava states that the birthrate of this city is declining – the record of previous year birthrate is half as that of five years ago—and predicts that the students to enroll in the public will reduced so that they could constrain the budget allocated for education next year. The planning committee also intended to cutoff the fund of athletic and entertainment facilities : the budget saved by all this cutoff could be focused to adults who are expected to be in greater number due to increase in their population. But the committee has based their planning on mountain of flaws and unwarranted assumptions. The committee fails to illuminate the proper cause of adult growth and reduction in the birthrate, the conclusion drawn with such incomplete information is dubious and rife with flaws.
The committee during planning the budget assumes that the comparison of birthrate of five years ago and previous year might not give the clear vision of the growth rate of overall decade. Perhaps it is possible that the birthrate at second, third and fourth previous year might have high birthrate, which will completely turmoil the conclusion drawn by the committee. Also, the committee undermines the birthrate of coming decade for which they are planning: assuming the birthrate of previous year and coming decade will be same—undermining the facts that the birthrate might fluctuate every year—has also made the conclusion incomplete and erroneous.
Furthermore, the committee assumes that the rate of public school admission will reduce surprisingly because of the reduced birthrate on the previous year which the committee thought to be plausible is spurious. While the committee assumes the enrollment number will be few, if not reduced, there might be a chance of migration of people from another region of the country to this city, which in fact increase the number of students to get enrolled in school proving the author's assumption incorrect.
Additionally, the assumption of the committee to provide the overall preserved budget-cutting expenses on another field to the adults is also rife with flaws. There might be possibilities that the “ to get an advantage” adults move to another city— to pursue further education, personal development, to start a new career, for jobs, and many other reasons—will cause the plan nugatory. With no guarantee of the targeted adults to get the advantage over the planning committee planning, the overall cutoff of budget on other fields might hinder the overall growth and development of the current children: disadvantages on the both side with single unwarranted assumption of committee with obscure data and information.
Though the committee planning the budget for the city of Calvatra for 10 years is an important task, they are planning such a big plan without proper study and survey, acting on the basis of outmoded data and with unwarranted assumptions. Planning on the basis of the assumptions of the stationary condition about the dynamic parameters like birthrate, migration make the arguments not reliable and full of errors.